Crystalline silicon photovoltaics: a cost analysis framework for determining technology pathways to reach baseload electricity costs

Abstract

Crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaics are robust, manufacturable, and Earth-abundant. However, barriers exist for c-Si modules to reach US$0.50-0.75/W p fabrication costs necessary for subsidy-free utility-scale adoption. We evaluate the potential of c-Si photovoltaics to reach this goal by developing a bottom-up cost model for c-Si wafer, cell, and module manufacturing; performing a sensitivity analysis to determine research domains that provide the greatest impact on cost; and evaluating the cost-reduction potential of line-of-sight manufacturing innovation and scale, as well as advanced technology innovation. We identify research domains with large cost reduction potential, including improving efficiencies, improving silicon utilization, and streamlining manufacturing processes and equipment, and briefly review ongoing research and development activities that impact these research domains. We conclude that multiple technology pathways exist to enable US$0.50/W p module manufacturing in the United States with silicon absorbers. More broadly, this work presents a usertargeted research and development framework that prioritizes research needs based on market impact.

Formation kinetics of copper-related light-induced degradation in crystalline silicon

“…1 Therefore, it is imperative to identify the defect responsible for light-induced degradation (LID), accounting for 1-2% efficiency decrease in crystalline silicon solar cells during one day of illumination. 2 During the past four decades, most studies have pointed to a highly recombination-active boronoxygen complex (BO-LID), 3,4 but the defect composition remains unclear.…”

All-back-contact ultra-thin silicon nanocone solar cells with 13.7% power conversion efficiency

“…Reducing a Si absorber thickness from 200 to sub-10 mm can potentially have a large impact on reducing the module cost further and enabling light-weight installation. The conventional surface texturing with alkaline or acidic solution for sub-10-mmthick Si substrates requires additional masking steps including photolithography 15 , and it is hard to implement on thin substrates with high yield 16 . In the past several years, significant effort has been focused on enhancing the light absorption by nanoscale light trapping using nanowires 8,[17][18][19] , nanocones [20][21][22] , nanodomes 7 and nanoholes [23][24][25][26] .…”

Enhanced absorption of thin-film photovoltaic cells using an optical cavity

“…The rays are propagated through the cavity until all rays have been absorbed by the cell ("absorbed"), absorbed by the cavity walls ("mirror losses"), lost through the aperture ("aperture losses") or absorbed by the cavity floor ("floor losses"). The effective absorptance of the cell embedded into the cavity is given simply by (4) where is the number of rays absorbed at the cell, is the total number of rays incident on the cell, and is the tilt angle. The term accounts for effective area losses due to the incident sunlight not being normal to the cell.…”

“…One approach to cost reduction is using thinfilm crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV cells, which use significantly less high-quality silicon material than traditional cells [3]. The silicon wafer typically accounts for 30% -40% of the total PV module cost, and this cost can be reduced if less material is used [4,5].…”