Crecimiento Económico E Inflación en México, 1993-2018: ¿una Relación Lineal O No Lineal?

Abstract

<p>El objetivo del artículo es analizar si la relación entre la inflación y el crecimiento económico en México durante 1993-2018 fue lineal o no; a tal efecto, elaboramos un modelo dinámico de rezagos distribuidos no lineales. La hipótesis nula es que esa relación es lineal y la hipótesis alternativa acepta que no es lineal. Si la evidencia empírica documenta una relación lineal, la hipótesis nula implicaría que: 1) la inflación es un fenómeno puramente monetario <em>a la</em> Friedman (1968); 2) la estabilidad de precios alcanzada mediante la política monetaria del nuevo consenso macroeconómico es condición necesaria y suficiente para la aceleración del crecimiento y la superación del prolongado estancamiento de la economía mexicana, y 3) el dinero es neutral. Por el contrario, si los datos muestran una relación no lineal, se rechazarían la hipótesis nula y las implicaciones antes enunciadas.</p><p><strong> </strong></p><p align="center">ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION IN MEXICO, 1993-2018: A LINEAR OR NON-LINEAR RELATIONSHIP?</p><p align="center"> </p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p>The paper is aimed at assessing whether the relationship between Mexico’s economic growth and inflation has been linear or non-linear over the period 1993-2018. A non-linear dynamic autorregresive distributive lag model is elaborated to test both the null hypothesis of a linear relationship between the involved variables and the alternative hypothesis of a non-linear relationship. An empirical support for the the null hypothesis would imply that: 1) inflation is purely a monetary phenomenon (Friedman, 1968); 2) price stability, as achieved by means of the monetary policy framework of the new macroeconomic consensus, is both a necessary and sufficient condition for output growth acceleration and for overcoming the protracted stagnation of the Mexican economy, and 3) money is neutral. By contrast, if the empirical evidence confirms a non-linear relationship, both the null hypothesis and its ensuing implications would be rejected.

On the Asymmetric Relation between Inflation and Growth in Mexico: A NARDL Approach

“…The second requirement was with the results of the asymmetry analysis from the Ramsey test, which indicates a more appropriate application of the NARLD models. The verifications of the econometric tests not only confirm the relationship of the variables with the proposed model but also show an area of structural instability with respect to the average in the period from 2008 (Cerezo-García et al 2019) and 2019 to 2023, as can be seen in the CUSUM test.…”

“…Many empirical works that have been conducted conclude that there are both internal and external variables that can influence economic growth measured by quarterly (Cerezo-García et al 2019) or annual GDP (Tinoco-Zermeño et al 2014). However, this paper raises the possibility of showing the dynamism of economic activity in a monthly period to examine the effects of asymmetric movements of the National Consumer Price Index in Mexico.…”

“…Therefore, the NARDL (12,9,10) model conducted in this research is useful for verifying the existence of a monthly cointegration relationship in Mexico between global economic activity and the level of consumer prices. Specifically, the NARDL model covers the ARDL deficiency helping to show the analysis of long-term nonlinear associations (Tinoco-Zermeño et al 2014;Olugbenga and Dada 2020;Karahan and Çolak 2020;Cerezo-García et al 2019). The NARDL model was used considering the results in Table 2 for stationarity analysis, order of integration, and non-linearity, where it was identified that lnIGAE is stationary at level I(0) and lnINPC at first level I(1), which meets the requirement for possible consideration in NARDL models.…”

“…This particularly illustrates the asymmetric trends of the lnI NPC t multiplier, incorporating significant shocks both positive and negative. In the case of lnI NPC + t , the effect is positive, but the negative impact of lnI NPC − t is higher on ∆(lnIGAE t ) as identified by Cerezo-García et al (2019) and Karahan and Çolak (2020). However, in studies on Bangladesh, the consumer price shocks are identified to have no contrary effects, as both are positive at the same level (Hossain et al 2021), while in studies on Turkey, the effects on economic growth are negative in both directions of the price shock (Karahan and Çolak 2020).…”

“…On the other hand, when there is no intervention of monetary policy and prices rise ∆(lnI NPC + ), the economic growth is affected negatively as observed in studies by Cerezo-García et al (2019), while Hossain et al (2021) and Karahan and Çolak (2020) present contrasting perspectives.…”