Cracks before the crisis: Polarization prior to COVID‐19 predicts increased collective angst and economic pessimism

Abstract

We examine how polarization within societies is associated with reduced confidence in national responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) crisis. We surveyed 4,731 participants across nine countries at Wave 1 (France, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Thailand, the United Kingdom and the United States), and then, at Wave 2 (3 months later), we recontacted 840 participants from two countries (the United Kingdom and the United States). We found that perceived polarization in the years preceding COVID‐19 predicted an enhanced perception that a country's COVID response was anomic (i.e., disorganized, chaotic), which in turn predicted greater collective angst and economic pessimism. Moreover, polarization measured at Wave 1 continued to predict perceptions that the COVID‐19 response was anomic at Wave 2, and, in turn, enhanced collective angst, pessimism, and the perception that dramatic political change was required to recover from COVID‐19. Our findings highlight how polarization may be associated with reduced confidence in leaders and governments at times of crisis, and how this predicts future‐focused anxiety and pessimism.

When Society Deteriorates: Political Intolerance, Perceived Anomic Threat and Participation in Anti-system Collective Actions in the Context of Authoritarian Democracy

“…This study provides empirical support for the idea that in a sociopolitical context characterized by intolerance towards the public expression of dissenting ideas, such as in authoritarian democracies, perceived societal anomie is a psychosocial mechanism allowing to understand the inclination of individuals to protest, because it is likely to generate the adoption of hostile intergroup attitudes [14]. This psychosocial disposition facilitates extremist polarizations and pessimism about the future of society.…”

“…Nowadays, this is more attributed to anomie, conceived as disintegration/deregulation [52,53]. This term refers to the perception of the fracture of society through two dimensions: the perceived fracture of the social structure, which reflects the perception of the disintegration of the social fabric (the decline of trust in society for example) and the perceived fracture of leadership, which refers to the perception that political leaders or governing authorities are ineffective and illegitimate [14]. Thus, societal anomie reflects the macrosocial character of the perception that the society in which one lives is deteriorating considerably.…”

“…The specialized literature reports that within a society, when social fabric and leadership break down, individuals tend to embark on social conflicts [14,31]. This means that a failing system generates favorable conditions for approval and participation in collective actions.…”

“…This means that a failing system generates favorable conditions for approval and participation in collective actions. The reason is that the perception of the anomic threat allows them to realize the break, not only between the current state of society and the past [49], but also between the current state of society and a future that probably could not or never change [14]. Furthermore, there is empirical evidence that perceived societal deterioration is related to negative political attitudes [53].…”

“…Indeed, the perceived break in society has a Anomic Threat and Participation in Anti-system Collective Actions in the Context of Authoritarian Democracy negative impact on citizens' trust in the governing system [33,57]. The reason for this is that they have apprehensions about their future, hence the pessimism and despair they feel and which could motivate them to adopt hostile behavior towards the governing authorities, considered to be responsible for the deterioration of the social fabric [14]. Based on these considerations, the present study proposes the perception of the fracture of society as a factor likely to reinforce the positive link between political intolerance (perceived as an instigator) and participation in anti-system collective actions, even in a repressive context like that of authoritarian democracies.…”