COVID-19 Space-time Cluster Detection in Ethiopia Using Retrospective Analysis

Abstract

Background: As of the 31st of January 2021, there had been 102,399,513 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, with 2,217,005 deaths reported to WHOThe goal of this study is to uncover the spatiotemporal patterns of COVID 19 in Ethiopia, which will aid in the planning and implementation of essential preventative measures. Methods We obtained data on COVID 19 cases reported in Ethiopia from November 23 to December 29, 2021, from an Ethiopian health data website that is open to the public.Kulldorff's retrospective space-time scan statistics were utilized to detect the temporal, geographical, and spatiotemporal clusters of COVID 19 at the county level in Ethiopia, using the discrete Poisson probability model. Results: In Ethiopia, between November 23 and December 29, 2021, a total of 22,199 COVID 19 cases were reported.The COVID 19 cases in Ethiopia were strongly clustered in spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal distribution, according to the results of Kulldorff's scan. statisticsThe most likely Spatio-temporal cluster (LLR = 70369.783209, RR = 412.48, P 0.001) was mostly concentrated in Addis Ababa and clustered between 2021/11/1 and 2021/11/30.Conclusion: From November 23 to December 29, 2021, this study found three large COVID 19 space-time clusters in Ethiopia, which could aid in future resource allocation in high-risk locations for COVID 19 management and prevention.