Coupled Climate-Economic Modes in the Sahel's Interannual Variability

Garnot, Vivien Sainte Fare; Groth, Andreas; Ghil, Michael

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.07.006

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This allows the creation of the Monte Carlo SSA method (MC-SSA), which is used mostly for time series in climatology. MC-SSA was suggested in Allen and Smith (1996) and later was considered in many papers (Allen and Robertson (1996), Palus and Novotn (1998), Palus and Novotná (2004), Jemwa and Aldrich (2006), Greco et al (2011), Garnot et al (2018), among others).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of signals by Monte Carlo singular spectrum analysis: Multiple testing

Golyandina

2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of signals by Monte Carlo singular spectrum analysis: Multiple testing

Golyandina

2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The West African Monsoon (WAM) brings precipitation in summer for around 80 million people from Senegal to Chad. Variability of the monsoon circulation has large impacts on Sahelian societies: on human health (Ramin et McMichael 2009;Jankowska et al 2012;Cissé 2019), agropastoral activities (Marega et al 2018), agriculture (Sultan et Gaetani 2016), and the gross domestic product (Sainte Fare Garnot et al 2018;Baarsch et al 2020), among others. Therefore, understanding, predicting, and projecting current and future variations of precipitation across the Sahel is an issue of major importance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature

Monerie

Biasutti

Mignot

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Future changes in Sahel precipitation are uncertain because of large differences among projections from various models. In order to explore this uncertainty, we use a storyline approach which seeks to identify alternative plausible evolutions of Sahel precipitation and their driving factors. By analysing projections from the CMIP6 climate models, we show that changes in North Atlantic and in Euro-Mediterranean temperatures explain up to 50% of the central Sahel precipitation change uncertainty. We then construct several storylines of Sahel precipitation change based on future plausible changes in North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperatures. In one storyline, an amplified warming of both the North Atlantic and the Euro-Mediterranean areas promotes a northward shift of the West African monsoon, increasing precipitation over the central Sahel, while, in another storyline, a moderate warming in both regions is associated with a small change in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel, at the end of the 21st century. These results indicate that reducing uncertainty in future changes in Sahel precipitation could be achieved by reducing uncertainty in the future warming of the North Atlantic and the Euro-Mediterranean areas.

show abstract

“…The West African Monsoon (WAM) brings precipitation in summer to around 80 million people from Senegal to Chad. Variability of the monsoon circulation has large impacts on Sahelian societies: on human health (Cissé, 2019; Jankowska et al., 2012; Ramin and McMichael, 2009), agropastoral activities (Marega et al., 2018), agriculture (Sultan and Gaetani, 2016), and the gross domestic product (Baarsch et al., 2020; Sainte Fare Garnot et al., 2018), among others. Therefore, understanding, predicting, and projecting current and future variations of precipitation across the Sahel is an issue of major importance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Storylines of Sahel Precipitation Change: Roles of the North Atlantic and Euro‐Mediterranean Temperature

Monerie,

Biasutti,

Mignot

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Future changes in Sahel precipitation are uncertain because of large differences among projections from various models. In order to explore this uncertainty, we use a storyline approach which seeks to identify alternative plausible evolutions of Sahel precipitation and their driving factors. By analysing projections from the CMIP6 climate models, we show that changes in North Atlantic and in Euro‐Mediterranean temperatures explain up to 60% of the central Sahel precipitation change uncertainty. We then construct several storylines of Sahel precipitation change based on future plausible changes in North Atlantic and Euro‐Mediterranean temperatures. In one storyline, an amplified warming of both the North Atlantic and the Euro‐Mediterranean areas promotes a northward shift of the West African monsoon, increasing precipitation over the central Sahel, while, in the opposite storyline, a moderate warming in both regions is associated with a small change in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel, at the end of the 21st century. These results indicate that Sahel precipitation uncertainty will not be substantially reduced unless the uncertainty in the future warming of the North Atlantic and the Euro‐Mediterranean areas is constrained.

show abstract

Coupled Climate-Economic Modes in the Sahel's Interannual Variability

Cited by 9 publications

References 35 publications

Detection of signals by Monte Carlo singular spectrum analysis: Multiple testing

Detection of signals by Monte Carlo singular spectrum analysis: Multiple testing

Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature

Storylines of Sahel Precipitation Change: Roles of the North Atlantic and Euro‐Mediterranean Temperature

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About