Correlated Bayesian Model of Aircraft Encounters in the Terminal Area Given a Straight Takeoff or Landing

Abstract

The integration of new airspace entrants into terminal operations requires design and evaluation of Detect and Avoid systems that prevent loss of well clear from and collision with other aircraft. Prior to standardization or deployment, an analysis of the safety performance of those systems is required. This type of analysis has typically been conducted by Monte Carlo simulation with synthetic, statistically representative encounters between aircraft drawn from an appropriate encounter model. While existing encounter models include terminal airspace classes, none explicitly represents the structure expected while engaged in terminal operations, e.g., aircraft in a traffic pattern. The work described herein is an initial model of such operations where an aircraft landing or taking off via a straight trajectory encounters another aircraft landing or taking off, or transiting by any means. The model shares the Bayesian network foundation of other Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory encounter models but tailors those networks to address structured terminal operations, i.e., correlations between trajectories and the airfield and each other. This initial model release is intended to elicit feedback from the standards-writing community.

Urban Air Mobility: Systematic Review of Scientific Publications and Regulations for Vertiport Design and Operations

“…This also means that airspace and safety conformance monitoring services need to be available ensuring safe conditions during all phases of the active flight. Since UAM operations are not yet conducted on a daily basis, the UAM and U-space/UTM community might consider emerging ideas proposed for traditional aviation such as [166][167][168][169][170][171].…”

Optimal Vertiport Airspace and Approach Control Strategy for Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

“…Lascara et al suggested four concept components that could enable the routine integration of UAM traffic in existing terminal area airspace [22]. Another similar study was conducted by Weinert, A. et al [23], who suggested an initial model of terminal operations in which an aircraft landing or taking off via a straight trajectory encounters another aircraft and evaluated the detection and avoidance systems. A small number of studies related to the trajectories or the collision avoidance of individual aircraft for the operation of UAM have been performed.…”