Coronavirus and Oil Price Crash

Albulescu, § Claudiu

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3553452

Cited by 144 publications

(126 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The most sensitive and at the same time most affected by the epidemic sectors will include tourism, hotel industry, gastronomy, culture, show business, cinematography, transport, education and health (Albulescu, 2020a). Trade, financial, banking and insurance sectors as well as fuel extraction and processing, and many other activities are also sensitive (Albulescu, 2020b). Few types of specialized activities related to pharmaceutical production, medical devices, protection and OHS, as well as selected types of ICT activities can count on maintaining or even increasing the growth rate.…”

Section: Structural Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Covid-19 Pandemic; Recession, Virtual Revolution Leading to De-globalization?

Sułkowski

2020

Journal of Intercultural Management

112

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Objective: The article is an attempt to make a diagnosis about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global trends, including organizational processes in enterprises, and challenges for organization leaders in many areas. Issues such as recession phase in which the economy will find itself, de-globalization and the increase in virtualization of both the economy and entire societies are discussed in the article.Methodology: The research method is a review of the literature, not very extensive, on the subject. There is a lack of research on social and cultural consequences of Covid-19 pandemics, and at the same time we are experiencing a flood of media information. The author is aware that impact assessment is subject to uncertainty and that it must be multidimensional.Findings: The review of the literature, as well as reports from financial institutions, show that the economies of individual countries are entering a phase of stagnation and recession. This will probably lead to a global recession. The text indicates the sectors and types of enterprises that will be most affected by the changes. The article proves that governments’ attitude to health care functions may change, as well as the role of states and international financial institutions. Virtualization of communication seems to be an important change. It is difficult to answer the question whether a pandemic will affect globalization or de-globalization, government decisions at national level are significant, but they draw from international experience.Value Added: The article becomes an important voice on the impact of a pandemic on the functioning of the economy and globalization.Recommendations: A question was posed demanding further analyses: whether strengthening the central government would mean de-globalization tendencies. It seems that the virtualization of social and economic life will continue after the pandemic expires, which needs to be confirmed. The impact of the pandemic on the world should be the subject of many research studies in the future.

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Section: Structural Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Covid-19 Pandemic; Recession, Virtual Revolution Leading to De-globalization?

Sułkowski

2020

Journal of Intercultural Management

112

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“…On the contrary, there was proved that everyday cases of new contagions have a low adverse effect on the crude oil quotations in the long-term [37]. Albulescu [38] explored whether the COVID-19 and crude oil influence the economic policy uncertainty of the United States and observed no impact when considering the global coronavirus data, but a positive effect when assessing the condition outside China.…”

Section: Earlier Studies Towards the Impact Of Covid-19 On Stock Marketsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis

Gherghina

Armeanu

Joldeș

2020

IJERPH

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This paper examines the linkages in financial markets during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. For this purpose, daily stock market returns were used over the period of December 31, 2019–April 20, 2020 for the following economies: USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, UK, China, and Romania. The study applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to explore whether the Romanian stock market is impacted by the crisis generated by novel coronavirus. Granger causality was employed to investigate the causalities among COVID-19 and stock market returns, as well as between pandemic measures and several commodities. The outcomes of the ARDL approach failed to find evidence towards the impact of Chinese COVID-19 records on the Romanian financial market, neither in the short-term, nor in the long-term. On the other hand, our quantitative approach reveals a negative effect of the new deaths’ cases from Italy on the 10-year Romanian bond yield both in the short-run and long-run. The econometric research provide evidence that Romanian 10-year government bond is more sensitive to the news related to COVID-19 than the index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange. Granger causality analysis reveals causal associations between selected stock market returns and Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index.

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“…While the fatality rate of this virus is considerably lower than that of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in [2002][2003] or that of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1919, COVID-19 is highly contagious and has triggered a great deal of worldwide economic and financial uncertainty (Zeren and Hizarci, 2020;Khan et al, 2020). The spread of the virus and globally enforced lockdowns have negatively impacted the overall demand and created significant short-term food price volatility (Albulescu, 2020). The fear engendered by the virus has put substantial stress on financial markets, where price volatility has been increasing continuously.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of COVID-19 on Gold Price Volatility

Yousef¹,

Shehadeh²

2020

IJEBA

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Purpose: This article investigates the implications of the spread of COVID-19 on gold spot prices. Design/Methodology/Approach: We use GARCH and GJR-GARCH models based on daily gold returns over the period 2012-2020 to analyze the impact of the coronavirus on the volatility of gold returns. Findings: We find a positive correlation between the increasing number of global coronavirus cases and increases in gold price. Using GARCH and GJR-GARCH models, we find a significant positive impact of COVID-19 on the conditional variance equation, indicating that the coronavirus may indeed increase the volatility of gold returns. This relates to the fact that the spread of the virus increases uncertainty with regard to the future of economic and financial markets, causing the demand for gold to increase and in turn pushing prices upwards, a trend which may be likely to continue until a vaccine or other treatments begin to stabilize the global economic outlook. Practical Implications: The issue of volatility is of significant concern to both investors and policymakers who base decisions on the relative stability of both individual financial markets and the world economy. Furthermore, volatility estimation is an essential factor in many models and has broad application to the market risk management practices of firms. Finally, understanding the volatility of the gold market is crucial for any analysis of current and future expectations regarding the risks associated with coronavirus which apply to global markets. Originality/Value: The lockdown restrictions which have been widely implemented across the globe to curb the spread of the virus have included travel prohibitions and border closures, stay-at-home and work-from-home orders, and extensive business closures, all causing immense fallout for the global economy. In the current study, we analyze for the first time the impact of the coronavirus on gold spot prices by examining their correlation with the number of cumulative global cases and daily new cases.

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Coronavirus and Oil Price Crash

Cited by 144 publications

References 28 publications

Covid-19 Pandemic; Recession, Virtual Revolution Leading to De-globalization?

Covid-19 Pandemic; Recession, Virtual Revolution Leading to De-globalization?

Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis

The Impact of COVID-19 on Gold Price Volatility

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