4 6 * These authors contributed equally 4 7 4 8 ABSTRACT 4 9Earth is home to over 350,000 vascular plant species 1 that differ in their traits in 5 0 innumerable ways. Yet, a handful of functional traits can help explaining major differences 5 1 among species in photosynthetic rate, growth rate, reproductive output and other aspects of plant 5 2 performance 2-6 . A key challenge, coined "the Holy Grail" in ecology, is to upscale this 5 3 understanding in order to predict how natural or anthropogenically driven changes in the identity 5 4 and diversity of co-occurring plant species drive the functioning of ecosystems 7,8 . Here, we 5 5 analyze the extent to which 42 different ecosystem functions can be predicted by 41 plant traits 5 6 in 78 experimentally manipulated grassland plots over 10 years. Despite the unprecedented 5 7 number of traits analyzed, the average percentage of variation in ecosystem functioning that they 5 8 jointly explained was only moderate (32.6%) within individual years, and even much lower 5 9 (12.7%) across years. Most other studies linking ecosystem functioning to plant traits analyzed 6 0 no more than six traits, and when including either only six random or the six most frequently 6 1 studied traits in our analysis, the average percentage of explained variation in across-year 6 2 ecosystem functioning dropped to 4.8%. Furthermore, different ecosystem functions were driven 6 3 by different traits, with on average only 12.2% overlap in significant predictors. Thus, we did not 6 4 find evidence for the existence of a small set of key traits able to explain variation in multiple 6 5 ecosystem functions across years. Our results therefore suggest that there are strong limits in the 6 6 extent to which we can predict the long-term functional consequences of the ongoing, rapid 6 7 changes in the composition and diversity of plant communities that humanity is currently facing. 6 8 6 9 BODY 7 0 Worldwide, ecological communities are rapidly changing due to various anthropogenic 7 1 activities 9-12 . This biodiversity change is non-random, and the functional traits of organisms 7 2 driving their growth, survival and reproduction are key in determining which species thrive and 7 3 which perish under global change 13-15 . This may have important implications, as traits not only 7 4 affect individual plant performance, but they may also drive various ecosystem functions such as 7 5biomass production, and the services these functions provide to human well-being 7,8,15 .
6Predicting rates of ecosystem functioning, such as biomass production or carbon 7 7 sequestration, from the composition or diversity of traits in plant communities has been coined 7 8 the "Holy Grail" in ecology 7,8 . Various studies have shown links between plant traits and 7 9 species-level variation in photosynthetic rate, growth, and reproductive output present in the 8 0 plant kingdom 3-5 . However, in natural communities, plants occur in various abiotic 8 1 environments, and they interact with individuals from other species, so ...