Consecutive extreme flooding and heat wave in Japan: Are they becoming a norm?

Wang, Shih-Yu; Coumou, Dim; Yoon, Jin‐Ho; Zhao, Lin; Gillies, Robert R.

doi:10.1002/asl.933

Cited by 53 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(36 reference statements)

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“…The analysis presented in the present paper can be applied to the general structure of the Meiyu rain band outside Taiwan (cf. Figure 5c, g), such as what was described for the July 2018 extreme Meiyu/Baiu rainfall in Japan (Wang et al, 2019). The results presented herein and in Wang et al (2019) also suggests that, even if the dynamic ingredients forming the Meiyu rain band will not change in the future, precipitation intensity can still increase due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

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Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon (Meiyu) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Tung

Wang

Chu

et al. 2020

Meteorological Applications

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The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu, produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. In the higher skill group, weak circulation changes and reduced low‐level convergence point to a synoptically unfavourable condition for precipitation. In the lower skill group, intensified low‐level southwesterly winds associated with a deepened upper level trough enhance moisture pooling. Thus, the projected increase in Meiyu precipitation will likely occur through the combined effects of (1) the extension of a strengthened North Pacific anticyclone enhancing southwesterlies; and (2) more systematically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship that increases precipitation intensity in a warmer climate. The overall increase in the Meiyu precipitation projected by climate models of variable performance supports the observed tendency toward more intense rainfall in Taiwan and puts its early June 2017 extreme precipitation events into perspective.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon (Meiyu) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Tung

Wang

Chu

et al. 2020

Meteorological Applications

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“…The ascending current and instability of the Baiu rainband were enhanced by the upper-level westerly jet and travelling synoptic waves, the mid-level advection of warm and moist air influenced by the South Asian thermal low, and low-level southerly moisture transport associated with an enhanced north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) 29 . All of these circulation features were observed in Case2018 30 . For Case2017, enhanced NPSH was notably observed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Advanced risk-based event attribution for heavy regional rainfall events

et al. 2020

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Risk-based event attribution (EA) science involves probabilistically estimating alterations of the likelihoods of particular weather events, such as heat waves and heavy rainfall, owing to global warming, and has been considered as an effective approach with regard to climate change adaptation. However, risk-based EA for heavy rain events remains challenging because, unlike extreme temperature events, which often have a scale of thousands of kilometres, heavy rainfall occurrences depend on mesoscale rainfall systems and regional geographies that cannot be resolved using general circulation models (GCMs) that are currently employed for risk-based EA. Herein, we use GCM large-ensemble simulations and high-resolution downscaled products with a 20-km non-hydrostatic regional climate model (RCM), whose boundary conditions are obtained from all available GCM ensemble simulations, to show that anthropogenic warming increased the risk of two record-breaking regional heavy rainfall events in 2017 and 2018 over western Japan. The events are examined from the perspective of rainfall statistics simulated by the RCM and from the perspective of background large-scale circulation fields simulated by the GCM. In the 2017 case, precipitous terrain and a static pressure pattern in the synoptic field helped reduce uncertainty in the dynamical components, whereas in the 2018 case, a static pressure pattern in the synoptic field provided favourable conditions for event occurrence through a moisture increase under warmer climate. These findings show that successful risk-based EA for regional extreme rainfall relies on the degree to which uncertainty induced by the dynamic components is reduced by background conditioning.

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“…3c). Notably, the heat wave events occurred in the extensive warm belt (exceeding the 95th percentile) over China, Korea, and Japan (Chen, R et al 2019;Kornhuber et al 2019;Shimpo et al 2019;Vogel et al 2019;Wang et al 2019;Ha et al 2020). Likewise, the 500-hPa geopotential height (GHT500) exceeding the 95th percentile between 30°N and 40°N revealed a strong anticyclonic anomaly that manifested in the northward-shifted subtropical high in the WNP (Fig.…”

Section: General Circulation Characteristics In Ja 2018mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The northward-expanded monsoon trough in JA 2018 provided a favorable background for the excess stormy conditions and severe rainfall events in Japan (e.g., the strong southwesterly and extremely heavy rainfall caused devastating landslides, flooding, and more than 200 deaths in west Japan after Typhoon Prapiroon in early July 2018 and Typhoon Jebi in early September, which was the strongest typhoon in 25 years and severely affected Japan's mainland in late August and early September) anomalies between 30°N and 60°N circumglobally in the upper troposphere, was observed and associated with the widespread heat wave events in the northern extratropics, including Northeast Asia, North America, northern Europe, and the Arctic, from May to August 2018 (Chen, L et al 2019;Kobayashi and Ishikawa 2019;Liu et al 2019;Vogel et al 2019;Ha et al 2020). These anomalous events in the WNP were accompanied by an unusually northward shift in the subtropical high and an enhanced monsoon trough (Wang et al 2019). The anomalous circulation pattern exhibited characteristics of the positive phase of the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern, which was the strongest since 1981 (Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Compound Effect of Local and Remote Sea Surface Temperatures on the Unusual 2018 Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon

Tseng

Chen

Lee³

et al. 2020

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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In July and August (JA) 2018, the monsoon trough in the western North Pacific (WNP) was unusually strong, the anticyclonic ridge was anomalously northwardshifted, and enhanced and northward-shifted tropical cyclone activity was observed. Studies have examined the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the North Atlantic (NA), the Indian Ocean (IO), and the tropical North Pacific. However, a synthetic view of SST forcings has yet to be identified. Based on a series of numerical experiments, this study demonstrated that the SST anomaly in the tropical WNP was the key forcing that formed the structure of the observed anomalous phenomena in the monsoon trough. Moreover, the combined effect of the SST anomaly in both the tropical and extratropical WNP resulted in enhanced circulation anomalies in the WNP. The NA SST anomaly also enhanced the monsoon trough in the presence of WNP SST anomaly. By contrast, the individual SST anomaly in the NA, IO, the extratropical WNP, and the subtropical eastern North Pacific could not force the enhanced monsoon trough. We proposed that the local effect of both the tropical and extratropical WNP SST anomaly as the major driver and the remote effect of NA SST anomaly as a minor contributor jointly induced the anomalous circulation and climate extremes in the WNP during JA 2018.

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Consecutive extreme flooding and heat wave in Japan: Are they becoming a norm?

Cited by 53 publications

References 18 publications

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon (Meiyu) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon (Meiyu) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Advanced risk-based event attribution for heavy regional rainfall events

Compound Effect of Local and Remote Sea Surface Temperatures on the Unusual 2018 Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon

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