Complexity in Economic and Social Systems

Dróżdż, S.; Kwapień, Jarosław; Oświęcimka, Paweł

doi:10.3390/e23020133

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Whereas the existing literature has been more technological or geopolitical in focus, our paper is a mathematical study of trends in the rollout and prevalence of low-carbon hydrogen plants (green and blue) with a focus on the end-use sector. We make use of time series analysis and metrics that have been extensively applied to various fields such as epidemiology [47][48][49][50][51][52][53], environmental sciences [54][55][56], finance [57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66], cryptocurrencies [67][68][69][70][71], crime [72][73][74] and other fields [75][76][77][78][79]. We are unaware of any instance where time series or distance analysis has been applied to the rollout of hydrogen plants over time and by the end-use sector.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distributional Trends in the Generation and End-Use Sector of Low-Carbon Hydrogen Plants

James

Menzies

2023

Hydrogen

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This paper uses established and recently introduced methods from the applied mathematics and statistics literature to study trends in the end-use sector and the capacity of low-carbon hydrogen projects in recent and upcoming decades. First, we examine distributions in plants over time for various end-use sectors and classify them according to metric discrepancy, observing clear similarity across all industry sectors. Next, we compare the distribution of usage sectors between different continents and examine the changes in sector distribution over time. Finally, we judiciously apply several regression models to analyse the association between various predictors and the capacity of global hydrogen projects. Across our experiments, we see a welcome exponential growth in the capacity of zero-carbon hydrogen plants and significant growth of new and planned hydrogen plants in the 2020’s across every sector.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distributional Trends in the Generation and End-Use Sector of Low-Carbon Hydrogen Plants

James

Menzies

2023

Hydrogen

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“…These modeling techniques have been widely applied to the study of several asset classes including equities, cryptocurrencies and fixed income [ 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 ]. Finally, we would be remiss not to mention the wide range of techniques in time series analysis that have been used to study financial problems [ 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 , 48 ], including cryptocurrencies [ 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 , 55 , 56 , 57 , 58 ] and diverse fields in socio- and econophysics [ 59 , 60 , 61 , 62 , 63 , 64 , 65 , 66 , 67 , 68 , 69 , 70 , 71 , 72 , 73 , 74 , 75 , 76 , 77 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collective Dynamics, Diversification and Optimal Portfolio Construction for Cryptocurrencies

James

Menzies

2023

Entropy

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Since its conception, the cryptocurrency market has been frequently described as an immature market, characterized by significant swings in volatility and occasionally described as lacking rhyme or reason. There has been great speculation as to what role it plays in a diversified portfolio. For instance, is cryptocurrency exposure an inflationary hedge or a speculative investment that follows broad market sentiment with amplified beta? We have recently explored similar questions with a clear focus on the equity market. There, our research revealed several noteworthy dynamics such as an increase in the market’s collective strength and uniformity during crises, greater diversification benefits across equity sectors (rather than within them), and the existence of a “best value” portfolio of equities. In essence, we can now contrast any potential signatures of maturity we identify in the cryptocurrency market and contrast these with the substantially larger, older and better-established equity market. This paper aims to investigate whether the cryptocurrency market has recently exhibited similar mathematical properties as the equity market. Instead of relying on traditional portfolio theory, which is grounded in the financial dynamics of equity securities, we adjust our experimental focus to capture the presumed behavioral purchasing patterns of retail cryptocurrency investors. Our focus is on collective dynamics and portfolio diversification in the cryptocurrency market, and examining whether previously established results in the equity market hold in the cryptocurrency market and to what extent. The results reveal nuanced signatures of maturity related to the equity market, including the fact that correlations collectively spike around exchange collapses, and identify an ideal portfolio size and spread across different groups of cryptocurrencies.

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“…Our analysis relies on a broad existing literature of time series analysis as used by applied mathematicians and statisticians. Such methods have been applied widely within the physical and social sciences, including epidemiology [27,28,29,30,31,32], finance [33,34,35,36,37,38], and other fields [39,40,41,42]. There are a variety of time series analysis frameworks that we draw upon, including parametric models [43,44], techniques built upon distance metrics and similarity, [45,46,47,48,49], network analysis [50,51,52], clustering [53], and others [54,55,56,57].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global and regional changes in carbon dioxide emissions: 1970-2019

James¹,

Menzies²

2022

Preprint

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We introduce new frameworks to study spatio-temporal patterns in carbon dioxide emissions, demographic trends and economic patterns across 50 countries over the past 50 years. Our analysis is broken up into four sections. First, we introduce a new method to classify countries into one of three characteristic emissions classes based on a one, two or three-segment piecewise linear model. We reveal that most countries are best represented by a piecewise linear model with one change point. Next, we perform a decade-by-decade study of carbon dioxide trajectories. There, we demonstrate notable changes in cluster structures in each decade. We then study the spatial propagation of emissions over time, highlighting a peak in spatial dispersion in 2000, beyond which there has been a gradual decline in spatial emissions variance over space. Finally, we use carbon dioxide, GDP, and population data and apply dimensionality reduction and clustering to group countries based on similarity in their real and carbon economies.

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Complexity in Economic and Social Systems

Abstract: During recent years we have witnessed a systematic progress in the understanding of complex systems, both in the case of particular systems that are classified into this group and, in general, as regards the phenomenon of complexity [...]

Cited by 14 publications

References 26 publications

Distributional Trends in the Generation and End-Use Sector of Low-Carbon Hydrogen Plants

Distributional Trends in the Generation and End-Use Sector of Low-Carbon Hydrogen Plants

Collective Dynamics, Diversification and Optimal Portfolio Construction for Cryptocurrencies

Global and regional changes in carbon dioxide emissions: 1970-2019

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