Comparison of runoff modelled using rainfall from different downscaling methods for historical and future climates

Chiew, Francis H. S.; Kirono, Dewi; Kent, David M.; Frost, Andrew; Charles, Stephen P.; Timbal, Bertrand; Nguyen, Kim Chi; Fu, Guobin

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.025

Cited by 141 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 32 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Changes in rainfall amounts are usually amplified in streamflow discharge and volume (Chiew and McMahon, 2002;Chiew et al, 2010;Li et al, 2013;Peleg and Gvirtzman, 2010). This effect was well demonstrated in the results of this study when examining the non-linearity of the synoptic-rainfall-streamflow interactions, which resolved in percentage change in runoff of about 3 times the percentage change in rainfall (the rainfall is projected to reduce by 2-25 % and the annual streamflow volume by 10-66 %).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Chiew et al (2006) defined this amplification, the change in annual runoff in comparison to the change in annual rainfall, as the precipitation elasticity of streamflow ( p ). Chiew et al (2010) reported a change in annual runoff that is up to 2 times the change in annual rainfall, but in an earlier study Chiew and McMahon (2002) stated that "in ephemeral catchment with low runoff coefficients the percentage change in runoff can be more than 4 times the percentage change in rainfall". p values similar in magnitude to those of this study ( p > 3) were found in other catchments worldwide, representing a variety of climates Chiew et al (2006).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Previous studies used daily rainfall resolution, for example: Chiew and McMahon (2002) examined the projected effects of climate change on runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture for eight Australian catchments, ranging from a medium scale (27 km 2 ) to large scale (544 km 2 ); Jones et al (2006) estimated the hydrological sensitivity to changes in rainfall and potential evaporation in 22 catchments in Australia, ranging from medium (52 km 2 ) to large (1300 km 2 ) scale; Chiew et al (2010) conducted a comprehensive study on eight medium-to-large catchments (161-1540 km 2 ) in Western Australia by comparing the predicted changes in rainfall and runoff characteristics; Vaze and Teng (2011) conducted another study in Australia to predict changes in runoff for catchments of medium-to-large scales (50-2000 km 2 ). Most of the above studies used rainfall data for point locations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

Peleg

Shamir

Georgakakos

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract.A modeling framework is formulated and applied to assess the sensitivity of the hydrological regime of two catchments in a convective rainfall environment with respect to projected climate change. The study uses likely rainfall scenarios with high spatiotemporal resolution that are dependent on projected changes in the driving regional meteorological synoptic systems. The framework was applied to a case study in two medium-sized Mediterranean catchments in Israel, affected by convective rainfall, by combining the HiReS-WG rainfall generator and the SAC-SMA hydrological model. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime was examined for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, comparing the historical (beginning of the 21st century) and future (mid-21st-century) periods from three general circulation model simulations available from CMIP5. Focusing on changes in the occurrence frequency of regional synoptic systems and their impact on rainfall and streamflow patterns, we find that the mean annual rainfall over the catchments is projected to be reduced by 15 % (outer range 2-23 %) and 18 % (7-25 %) for the RCP4.5 sand RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. The mean annual streamflow volumes are projected to be reduced by 45 % (10-60 %) and 47 % (16-66 %). The average events' streamflow volumes for a given event rainfall depth are projected to be lower by a factor of 1.4-2.1. Moreover, the streamflow season in these ephemeral streams is projected to be shorter by 22 % and 26-28 % for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The amplification in reduction of streamflow volumes relative to rainfall amounts is related to the projected reduction in soil moisture, as a result of fewer rainfall events and longer dry spells between rainfall events during the wet season. The dominant factors for the projected reduction in rainfall amount were the reduction in occurrence of wet synoptic systems and the shortening of the wet synoptic systems durations. Changes in the occurrence frequency of the two dominant types of the regional wet synoptic systems (active Red Sea trough and Mediterranean low) were found to have a minor impact on the total rainfall.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

Peleg

Shamir

Georgakakos

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…CCAM has no lateral boundaries and accordingly does not suffer from the problems associated with lateral boundaries in limited area RCMs (Fox-Rabinovitz et al, 2008). CCAM has been used for regional climate studies in Australia (Charles et al, 2007;Chiew et al, 2010;Post et al, 2012) and internationally (Engelbrecht et al, 2009;Lal et al, 2008).…”

Section: Regional Climate Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

Bennett

Ling²,

Post

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Changes to streamflows caused by climate change may have major impacts on the management of water for hydro-electricity generation and agriculture in Tasmania, Australia. We describe changes to Tasmanian surface water availability from 1961-1990 to 2070-2099 using high-resolution simulations. Six fine-scale (∼10 km 2 ) simulations of daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are generated with the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a variable-resolution regional climate model (RCM). These variables are bias-corrected with quantile mapping and used as direct inputs to the hydrological models AWBM, IHACRES, Sacramento, SIMHYD and SMAR-G to project streamflows.The performance of the hydrological models is assessed against 86 streamflow gauges across Tasmania. The SIMHYD model is the least biased (median bias = −3 %) while IHACRES has the largest bias (median bias = −22 %). We find the hydrological models that best simulate observed streamflows produce similar streamflow projections.There is much greater variation in projections between RCM simulations than between hydrological models. Marked decreases of up to 30 % are projected for annual runoff in central Tasmania, while runoff is generally projected to increase in the east. Daily streamflow variability is projected to increase for most of Tasmania, consistent with increases in rainfall intensity. Inter-annual variability of streamflows is projected to increase across most of Tasmania. This is the first major Australian study to use highresolution bias-corrected rainfall and potential evapotranspiration projections as direct inputs to hydrological models. Our study shows that these simulations are capable of producing realistic streamflows, allowing for increased confidence in assessing future changes to surface water variability.

show abstract

“…The chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the uncertainty of any one model to produce realistic results necessitate the use of multiple GCMs under multiple greenhouse gas forcings to conduct a comprehensive impact assessment of climate change (Mearns et al, 2003;Wilby et al, 2004;Chiew et al, 2009Chiew et al, , 2010. Issues arise when determining which downscaling method to use, since emulating previous impact studies which have traditionally focused on a single downscaling method, GCM, scenario, and time period limit the scope of results.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simple Technique for Obtaining Future Climate Data Inputs for Natural Resource Models

2016

Appl. Eng. Agric

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Comparison of runoff modelled using rainfall from different downscaling methods for historical and future climates

Cited by 141 publications

References 32 publications

A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

A Simple Technique for Obtaining Future Climate Data Inputs for Natural Resource Models

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About