Comparative analysis of cost estimates of major public investment projects

Magnussen, Ole Morten; Olsson, Nils O.E.

doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2005.11.011

Cited by 45 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…However, there is an abundance of evidence on discrepancies between early budgets and costs at completion. Case studies focus on most striking examples (Potts, 2005;Polonski, 2006;Magnussen and Olsson, 2006), but there exist statistical overviews of the scale and frequency of cost miscalculations: quite alarming by Flyvbjerg et al (2002), and a number of less pessimistic (Ng et al 2001;KPI UK, 2003;BCIS, 2004b;KPI New Zealand, 2005). Another issue is the reliability of the winning-bid price as a measure of the project scope and scale.…”

Section: Regression Models Of Construction Durationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Construction Duration for Public Roads During the Preplanning Phase

Czarnigowska

Sobotka²

2014

EPPM-Journal

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Estimates of the construction time are of key importance in the early phases of the projectthey serve as a basis for the decision whether to commence with planning or not, and are used as input for budgets and programmes. Usually, such estimates base on experience with similar projects completed in the past. This experience may be recorded in the form of mathematical models that relate project characteristics to construction time. The aim of the research was, basing on real-life cases, to develop a model of public road building projects duration. The research comprised collection of input for the analyses, preselection of project features correlated with duration, and construction of three models: a simple statistical regression, a multifactor regression and a regression tree. The models were then compared to each other and to the models presented in the literature with respect to their predictive ability. With the assumed set of potential predictors of construction duration, the regression models were found statistically correct, though not precise enough be used as decision-support tools.

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Section: Regression Models Of Construction Durationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Construction Duration for Public Roads During the Preplanning Phase

Czarnigowska

Sobotka²

2014

EPPM-Journal

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“…Statistical methods cannot solve the complexity to its full content. Many simple statistical case studies show the high potential in failing as there are more influencing factors involved in project prediction (Magnussen et al 2006, Potts 2005, Walker 1995, Flyvberg et al 2002. Hence, Smart data structures as well as advanced data analytics in form of artificial intelligence are needed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Smart Data - Dealing With Task Complexity in Construction Scheduling

Oprach¹,

Steuer²,

Krichbaum³

et al. 2019

Proc. 27th Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction (IGLC)

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Due to the numerous influencing factors, construction scheduling is a complex task. As construction projects are having a unique character, scheduling takes time and often uses high time buffers to cover uncertainties. Using historic project data with artificial intelligence applications show potentials to supportvalid and simple scheduling in the future. The construction industry already deals with large volumes of heterogeneous data and the amount of data is expected to increase exponentially with the Internet of Things (IoT). Smart data filters and analyses big data for useful information and creates a subset of information that is important and valuable. Therefore smart data sets a data management structure according to the lean principles.Due to fragmented data management practices and a misunderstanding of the needed informationen in construction, data management practices in construction projects are far behind other industries. By adapting existing applications of artificial intelligence to construction scheduling, the gap of data management practices gets more visible. This paper identifies in three case studies relevant data (smart data) in and current challenges for construction scheduling based on historic data. Further research is needed to close the existing gap in construction data management.

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“…• Transportation facility land values: The cost of land used for transportation infrastructure construction and other public facilities dedicated for transport vehicle use [52,57] • Infrastructure development and construction costs: The cost of designing and constructing transportation facilities including land and transport infrastructure construction [68] • Traffic services: These refer to the costs of police, emergency response, law enforcement, planning, street lighting, parking enforcement and driver training [52] • Adjacent property values: The change in real property values resulting from the provision and operation of the new transportation infrastructure [69] 2.Socio-economic impacts: a. Land development impacts:…”

Section: Direct Impacts Of Transportation Infrastructure Provisionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-Benefit Evaluation Tools on the Impacts of Transport Infrastructure Projects on Urban Form and Development

Ustaoglu¹,

Williams²

2020

Smart Urban Development

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This study reviews literature for identifying the methods in order to evaluate the impacts of key transport infrastructure provisions on urban form and peri-urban development in European Union (EU) member countries. Key impacts and linkages of transportation provision on urban development trends are identified through the international literature. These include direct impacts of transportation infrastructure provision, socioeconomic impacts, transportation network effects and energy and environmental impacts. Among the evaluation methodologies, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is the most common approach for transport policy impact assessments both in the national project appraisal guidelines and in scientific analysis and research. Considering its extensive usage in the appraisal work, the main focus will be on the evaluation tools used within the CBA approach. The corresponding data requirements for the valuation of indicators will be also discussed in order to assess the impacts of costs and benefits of transport investments, particularly rapid rail investments, on urban form and development.

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Comparative analysis of cost estimates of major public investment projects

Cited by 45 publications

References 5 publications

Estimating Construction Duration for Public Roads During the Preplanning Phase

Estimating Construction Duration for Public Roads During the Preplanning Phase

Smart Data - Dealing With Task Complexity in Construction Scheduling

Cost-Benefit Evaluation Tools on the Impacts of Transport Infrastructure Projects on Urban Form and Development

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