Communication of Scientific Uncertainty about a Novel Pandemic Health Threat: Ambiguity Aversion and Its Mechanisms

Abstract

Communicating scientific uncertainty about public health threats is ethically desirable but challenging due to its tendency to promote avoidance of choice options with unknown probabilities—a phenomenon known as “ambiguity aversion.” This study examined this phenomenon’s potential magnitude, its responses to different communication strategies, and its mechanisms. In a factorial experiment, 2701 adult laypersons in Spain read one of three versions of a hypothetical newspaper article describing a pandemic vaccine-preventable disease (VPD), but varying in scientific uncertainty about VPD risk and vaccine effectiveness: No-Uncertainty, Uncertainty, and Normalized-Uncertainty (emphasizing its expected nature). Vaccination intentions were lower for the Uncertainty and Normalized-Uncertainty groups compared to the No-Uncertainty group, consistent with ambiguity aversion; Uncertainty and Normalized-Uncertainty groups did not differ. Ambiguity-averse responses were moderated by health literacy and mediated by perceptions of vaccine effectiveness, VPD likelihood, and VPD severity. Communicating scientific uncertainty about public health threats warrants caution and further research to elucidate its outcomes, mechanisms, and management.

Impacts of Layoffs and Government Assistance on Mental Health during COVID-19: An Evidence-Based Study of the United States

“…As for policy recommendations, it is vital that the government pays more attention to mental health problems, especially depression and anxiety, among the general population, while also combating the "infodemic" of public health emergencies. The government or health officials sending mixed messages can lead to public confusion, uncertainty, and fear [40], which might bring further social consequences, such as increasing negative attitudes toward foreign groups most affected by the pandemic [41]. The official public campaigns aiming at mitigating the psychological impact of pandemics should consider the mechanism that modulates the influence of an individual's perception about COVID-19 on their subjective well-being or life satisfaction [42].…”

A Metacognitive Approach to Reconsidering Risk Perceptions and Uncertainty: Understand Information Seeking During COVID-19

“…Moreover, in the face of a novel pandemic health threat, risk information itself can be ambiguous and lack precision due to limited scientific knowledge and evidence. Therefore, research has sought to examine how such scientific uncertainty influences perceived probability of risk occurrence at the individual level (Han et al, 2018). Powell et al (2007) categorized this conceptualization of uncertainty as external uncertainty, which highlights how much individuals comprehend the uncertainty presented in expert information.…”

The COVID‐19 pandemic and mental health impacts

“…Feelings of loss of control drive fear and uncertainty as the trajectory of the pandemics is constantly evolving; so is the advice on the action to take to stop the spread of a pandemic. Perceived mixed messaging from government or health officials can also lead to public confusion, uncertainty, and fear (Han, Zikmund‐Fisher et al 2018).…”