Communication and interpretation of regional weather forecasts: a survey of the Italian public

Abstract

ABSTRACT:The aim of the present study is to contribute to the correctness and effectiveness of weather forecast communication, the importance of which has been steadily growing along with the improvement in numerical weather prediction models and methods as well as the general awareness about the increase of extreme events within a context of global climate change. An extensive survey was conducted among the general users of the weather forecasts issued by the regional meteorological service of Tuscany, Italy (LaMMA Consortium), which resulted in 2388 volunteers responding to the questions aimed at better understanding of how people access, interpret and use weather forecasts. The survey also includes some items investigated in previous research, allowing comparison with similar findings in other countries. The most critical issue concerns the uncertainty information, investigated with the main aim of verifying the existence and relevance of inferential mechanisms in the interpretation of weather icons and maps used in LaMMA forecasts to assess uncertainty. The present study also discusses users' interpretations of the probability of precipitation forecasts and their preferences on how forecast uncertainty is conveyed. Results show that, even if the Italian public is accustomed to strictly deterministic weather forecasts, people attribute uncertainty to them on their own even if lacking any explicit indication, thus suggesting the need to supplement the existing forecasts with both graphical and textual information about uncertainty, particularly in the case of precipitation forecasts.

Mobile weather apps or the illusion of certainty

“…Nonetheless, providing an hourly forecast beyond 7 days and, in general, providing a detailed and localized forecast for a long lead time is not justified; it increases users' expectations about local forecast accuracy and, in the end, undermines the credibility of the science of meteorology. This is true even if several studies (Morss et al , ; Lazo et al , ; Joslyn and Savelli, ; Zabini et al , ) have found that people are aware that the uncertainty in weather forecasts varies with the forecast lead time.…”

“…The only way that uncertainty is expressed in the study sample is by PoP, generally conveyed in a numerical format (as a percentage probability) (27 of 39 apps contain PoP). Notwithstanding this, users have problems with the interpretation of PoP, as shown in several studies including Murphy et al (1980), Sink (1995), Gigerenzer et al (2005), Handmer and Proudley (2007), Morss et al (2008), Joslyn and Nichols (2009), Joslyn et al (2009a, 2009b, Joslyn and Savelli (2010), Peachey et al (2013), Kox et al (2014), Zabini et al (2015) and Abraham et al (2015).…”

“…The present study is focused on how uncertainty information is included in weather forecast communication, a theme that has recently been investigated widely and represents one of the challenges in improving the effectiveness of the forecast dissemination process (Gigerenzer et al , ; Roulston et al , ; Joslyn et al , ; Morss et al , , ; Nadav‐Greenberg and Joslyn, ; Roulston and Kaplan, ; Joslyn and LeClerc, , ; Savelli and Joslyn, ; Peachey et al , ; Sivle et al , ; Abraham et al , ; Zabini et al , ).…”

Engaging students and teachers in meteorology and atmospheric sciences: the LaMMA activities

“…In the last years, hundreds of teachers and students took part in the proposed modules, with many of them visiting LaMMA, meeting researchers and increasing their knowledge about meteorology and intrinsic uncertainty of weather forecasts (Zabini, 2016;Zabini et al, 2015). As the evaluation attests, the LaMMA educational modules are appreciated by students who find them engaging and challenging.…”

How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts

“…The research reported here extends these evaluations by focusing on county emergency managers (EMs) in the United States, local-level professionals who apply management, planning, science, and technology to deal with flooding that can cause property damage, disrupt community life, and kill or injure people (Hoetmer, 1991, p. xvii). Do these first-responder experts face the same kind of decision constraints revealed in other assessments of forecast use in weather-related disasters, almost all of which have examined the general public (see, for example, Joslyn, Nadav-Greenberg, and Nichols 2009;Lazo, Morss, and Demuth, 2009;Joslyn and Savelli, 2010;Joslyn and LeClerc, 2012;LeClerc and Joslyn, 2015;Zabini et al, 2015). Only a small number have concentrated on professionals involved with forecasts, such as the forecasters themselves (Demeritt et al, 2007(Demeritt et al, , 2013Pappenberger et al, 2013), experts interested in using flood visualisation tools (Frick and Hegg, 2011), and emergency service providers (Kox, Gerhold, and Ulbrich, 2015).…”