2022
DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2298
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Abstract: Recent research has shown that when people combine verbal probabilistic forecasts from two sources, they are not simply averaged but can reinforce each other; so when two advisors both said an event was "rather likely," some listeners concluded that the event was "quite likely". Conversely, when both said the event was "rather unlikely," people concluded that it was "quite unlikely." The present studies demonstrate that the direction of this effect is not evoked by high versus low probabilities, but by the dir… Show more

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
1
1

Citation Types

0
2
0

Year Published

2022
2022
2024
2024

Publication Types

Select...
3

Relationship

2
1

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 3 publications
(2 citation statements)
references
References 31 publications
0
2
0
Order By: Relevance
“…The survey also included an unrelated task presented at the onset of the survey, where participants combined two verbal probability forecasts. The task required participants to estimate the probability of an event that was described as either “not certain” or as having “a chance” to occur by two different forecasters (more details about the method and results are reported in the work of Teigen et al, 2022a).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The survey also included an unrelated task presented at the onset of the survey, where participants combined two verbal probability forecasts. The task required participants to estimate the probability of an event that was described as either “not certain” or as having “a chance” to occur by two different forecasters (more details about the method and results are reported in the work of Teigen et al, 2022a).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…It turns out that this increase in certainty requires positive phrases. Negative phrases (both advisors say a rise is "not completely certain") make people think that the combined chance is lower (Teigen et al, 2022b).…”
Section: Directionalitymentioning
confidence: 99%