Combining ecological niche models with experimental seed germination to estimate the effect of climate change on the distribution of endangered plant species in the Brazilian Cerrado

Ferreira, Rafael Batista; Parreira, Micael Rosa; Arruda, Filipe Viegas de; Falcão, Marcus J. A.; Mansano, Vidal de Freitas; Nabout, João Carlos

doi:10.1007/s10661-022-09897-7

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 70 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Ribeiro et al [52] showed significant impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of Dipteryx alata Vogel in the Brazilian Cerrado. Similar results have been reported in other studies of plants species from the Cerrado, related to climate change's impacts [52][53][54]. However, despite these studies demonstrating negative effects on the distribution of plants in this biome, Tomaz et al [55] indicated that a medicinal plant species tends to adapt in different environmental conditions, since the distribution of the species tends to decrease in the Atlantic Forest and Caatinga over northeast Brazil.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

Potential Distribution of Pilocarpus microphyllus in the Amazonia/Cerrado Biomes under Near-Future Climate Change Scenarios

Monteiro

Souza

Miranda

et al. 2023

Plants

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Pilocarpus microphyllus Stapf. ex Wardlew. (Rutaceae) is an endemic and threatened medicinal plant species from tropical Brazil. Popularly known as “jaborandi”, it is the unique natural source of pilocarpine, an alkaloid used to medical treat glaucoma and xerostomia. Based on Species Distribution Models (SDMs), we modeled the suitability of P. microphyllus’s geographical distribution considering three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two future climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The quantitative analyses carried out using ten different SDM algorithms revealed that precipitation seasonality (Bio15) and precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) were the most important bioclimatic variables. The results evidenced four main key areas of continuous occurrence of the plant spreading diagonally over tropical Brazilian biomes (Amazon, Cerrado and Caatinga). The near-future (2020 to 2040) ensemble projections considering all GCMs and scenarios have indicated negative impacts for the potential loss or significant reduction in suitable habitats for P. microphyllus in the transition region between the Amazon and Cerrado into central and northern Maranhão state, and mainly in the Caatinga biome over the northern Piaui state. On the other hand, positive impacts of the expansion of the plant habitat suitability are projected over forest cover protected areas of the Amazon biome in the southeastern Pará state. Since the jaborandi is of socioeconomic importance for many families in the north/northeast Brazil, it is urgent to implement public policies for conservation and sustainable management, thus mitigating the impacts of global climate change.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

Potential Distribution of Pilocarpus microphyllus in the Amazonia/Cerrado Biomes under Near-Future Climate Change Scenarios

Monteiro

Souza

Miranda

et al. 2023

Plants

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The intensification of human activities is progressively affecting the Earth's climate, and an increase in global mean temperature of 1–1.8°C (optimistic scenario) or 3.3–5°C (pessimist scenario) is expected by the year of 2100 (IPCC 2022). Considering the deep relationship between ants and temperature, they will certainly be impacted, mainly through their physiology and geographical distribution (Ferreira et al 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Under the sun or stars: how a dune ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) community is shaped along the day and night

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Atlantic Forest (AF) is a threatened megadiverse biome distributed from north to south along the ocean of South America and is considered a hotspot of biodiversity. Currently, over 3000 ant taxa are known to occur in AF ecosystems, and many more are expected but may never be acknowledged. The patterns and processes structuring AF ant communities are not well known, urging such studies. Temperature is a fundamental environmental condition that modulates ant species occurrences at different local and regional scales. Global warming may deeply impact species occurrence, dynamics and interactions, and efforts to amplify our understanding of AF biodiversity are urgent. Ants are widely distributed in the dunes, and many species are sensitive to local changes in temperature as some species are considered thermophilic. In open areas such as dunes, the temperature varies considerably over 24 h, with great changes mainly between day and night. In this study, we sought to answer whether the foredune ant community of the Restinga, one of the habitats of the AF, is structured by temperature from day and night. For this, we tested the following hypotheses: (i) temperature influences ant diversity; (ii) in warmer periods, there is a decrease in richness, with an increase in abundance; and (iii) ant species composition varies throughout the day and, consequently, at different temperatures. We arbitrarily drew a parallel transect to the ocean composed of 15 pitfall trap units spaced every 30 m. Traps were changed in five sampling periods: T1 (9:10–13:10 h), T2 (13:40–18:40 h), T3 (19:00–23:00 h), T4 (23:00–03:00 h) and T5 (03:00–07:00 h). In each period, we recorded the ambient temperature and relative humidity. We recovered 11 ant species on the foredunes. Our results showed that the richness and abundance of ants in the daytime period was higher than in the night‐time period, suggesting that temperature positively affected these two parameters of the studied community. The species composition also changed over the sampling periods. Considering that our aim was to describe the species diversity across 24 h of sampling, this ‘quick‐shot’ of the ant community allowed us to determine that temperature and humidity shape their occurrence and activity. These results indicate that there is an interplay between these factors that are correlated and play an important role in structuring ant communities in Restinga foredunes.

show abstract

“…In addition, cold-adapted species with limited dispersal ability and obligate seeding (Bell 2001;Bond and Midgley 2001) are more likely to be threatened by climate change (Vaughn et al 2022). The current scenario of global change may affect plant distribution and survival through early life stage processes (Walck et al 2011;Ferreira et al 2022). Since germination is the first step in producing plants (Kaye et al 2018), seedlings are extremely vulnerable to climate change (Cochrane et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of cold stratification on the temperature range for germination of Pinus koraiensis

Song

Zhang

et al. 2022

J. For. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Germination at low spring temperatures may offer a competitive advantage for the growth and survival of plant species inhabiting temperate forest ecosystems. Pinus koraiensis is a dominant species in temperate forests of northeastern China. Its seeds exhibit primary morphophysiological dormancy following dispersal in autumn, limiting natural or artificial regeneration: direct seeding and planting seedlings in spring. The aim of this study was to determine the optimum cold stratification temperature that induces germination to increase towards lower temperatures. Seeds from two populations (Changbaishan and Liangshui) were cold stratified at 0, 5 and 10 °C. Germination to incubation temperatures (10/5, 20/10, 25/15 and 30/20 °C; 14/10 h day/night) were determined after 2 and 4 weeks, and 5.5 and 6.5 months of cold stratification. After 5.5 months, approximately 68–91% of seeds from both populations germinated at incubation temperatures of 25/15 °C and 30/20 °C, regardless of cold stratification temperatures. When the cold stratification temperature was reduced to 0 °C and the period increased to 6.5 months, germination at 10/5 °C significantly improved, reaching 37% and 64% for the Changbaishan and Liangshui populations, respectively. After 6.5 months of cold stratification, there was a significant linear regression between cold stratification temperatures and germination at 10/5 °C. The range in temperatures allowing for germination gradually expanded to include lower temperatures with decreasing cold stratification temperatures from 10 to 5 °C and further to 0 °C.

show abstract

Combining ecological niche models with experimental seed germination to estimate the effect of climate change on the distribution of endangered plant species in the Brazilian Cerrado

Cited by 7 publications

References 70 publications

Potential Distribution of Pilocarpus microphyllus in the Amazonia/Cerrado Biomes under Near-Future Climate Change Scenarios

Potential Distribution of Pilocarpus microphyllus in the Amazonia/Cerrado Biomes under Near-Future Climate Change Scenarios

Under the sun or stars: how a dune ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) community is shaped along the day and night

Effect of cold stratification on the temperature range for germination of Pinus koraiensis

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About