Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

Karlsson, Ida; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Trolle, Dennis; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jensen, Karsten H.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.069

Cited by 179 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Furthermore, the model was previously calibrated using 191 discharge stations and approximately 17 500 data entries of groundwater head (GWH; Stisen et al, 2012). The DK-model has been extensively used in different applications with different objectives: assessment of climatic change (Karlsson et al, 2016), water resources management ) and largescale nitrogen modeling (Windolf et al, 2011;Hansen et al, 2009;van der Keur et al, 2008) highlighting the importance of the spatial component of the model and its reliability.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial pattern evaluation of a calibrated national hydrological model – a remote-sensing-based diagnostic approach

Mendiguren

Koch

Stisen

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Distributed hydrological models are traditionally evaluated against discharge stations, emphasizing the temporal and neglecting the spatial component of a model. The present study widens the traditional paradigm by highlighting spatial patterns of evapotranspiration (ET), a key variable at the land-atmosphere interface, obtained from two different approaches at the national scale of Denmark. The first approach is based on a national water resources model (DKmodel), using the MIKE-SHE model code, and the second approach utilizes a two-source energy balance model (TSEB) driven mainly by satellite remote sensing data. Ideally, the hydrological model simulation and remote-sensing-based approach should present similar spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of ET. However, the spatial comparison showed that the differences are significant and indicate insufficient spatial pattern performance of the hydrological model.The differences in spatial patterns can partly be explained by the fact that the hydrological model is configured to run in six domains that are calibrated independently from each other, as it is often the case for large-scale multi-basin calibrations. Furthermore, the model incorporates predefined temporal dynamics of leaf area index (LAI), root depth (RD) and crop coefficient (Kc) for each land cover type. This zonal approach of model parameterization ignores the spatiotemporal complexity of the natural system. To overcome this limitation, this study features a modified version of the DKmodel in which LAI, RD and Kc are empirically derived using remote sensing data and detailed soil property maps in order to generate a higher degree of spatiotemporal variability and spatial consistency between the six domains. The effects of these changes are analyzed by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to evaluate spatial patterns. The EOF analysis shows that including remote-sensing-derived LAI, RD and Kc in the distributed hydrological model adds spatial features found in the spatial pattern of remote-sensing-based ET.

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Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial pattern evaluation of a calibrated national hydrological model – a remote-sensing-based diagnostic approach

Mendiguren

Koch

Stisen

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Model integration is often carried out through coupling of two or more specialized models from different (sub-) disciplines. Recently, a desire to integrate land-use change and hydrologic models has evolved (Karlsson et al, 2016;McColl and Aggett, 2007;Monier et al, 2016;Narasimhan et al, 2017). The benefit of such coupling is that watershed planners can examine the present and future characteristic of a specific watershed through analyzing effects of land-use change on water resources and vice-versa in an integrated and holistic manner.…”

Section: The Model Couplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Modeling of Land and Water Resources in two African Catchments

Yalew¹

2018

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Although all care is taken to ensure integrity and the quality of this publication and the information herein, no responsibility is assumed by the publishers, the author nor UNESCO-IHE for any damage to the property or persons as a result of operation or use of this publication and/or the information contained herein. A pdf version of this work will be made available as Open Access via http://repository.tudelft.nl/ihe This version is licensed under the Creative Commons SUMMARYLand and water are two of the most important and interacting natural resources that are critical for human survival and development. Growing population and global economic expansion are accelerating the demand for land and water for uses such as agriculture, urbanization, irrigation, hydropower, and industrialization. The land surface changes dynamically due to these demands and other socio-economic drivers. Biophysical factors such as topographic suitability, climate change, and rainfall variability further influence landuse changes and land-use change decisions. Water resources are likewise experiencing pressure from overuse, pollution, and changes in hydrologic processes as a result of both socio-economic and biophysical factors.Land and water resources are considered to have strong interactions. Although the science of this interaction is not new, the two are typically managed under separate governance systems (Le Maitre et al., 2014). As a result, land-use change and hydrology or water resources are studied usually separately. Modelers and model developers reproduced the existing separation in governance of land and water resources in their respective models, which gave rise to mild treatment of one of the resources when analyzing the other. The result is that hydrology and water resources are often considered to be processes and resources affected only by biophysical components, ignoring anthropogenic contributions that may actually influence such characteristics through direct effects on land-use, for instance.The need to understand and explicitly represent the interaction between water resources on the one hand and land-use changes with its drivers on the other is imperative for sustainable management of integrated natural resources management in general and land and water resources management in particular. In recent years, interesting sub-disciplines such as 'socio-hydrology' are emerging which recognize and emphasize the importance of socioeconomic and anthropogenic effects on hydrologic and water resources analysis. Interaction and feedback between land-use and water resources is still not explicitly and dynamically represented in most scientific modeling tools related to land and water, however.Furthermore, often due to limitations of access and computing resources, frameworks for communicating integrated assessment and modeling in a way that can be operational to resource managers and decision makers related to such resources is limited. This is especially evident in developing regions. After the land-use models calibrated and...

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“…A detailed description of the model and its input/output variables can be found in the model's public domain website at http://www.brc.tamus.edu/swat. SWAT processes hydrological simulation by applying the principle of water balance in each of the hydrologic response units (HRUs) [38], which define areas with identical combinations of surface slope, land use, and soil type [18]. The water balance equation is given as…”

Section: Swat Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hydrological models, however, offer a viable framework for conceptualizing and investigating the relationships between climate, underlying surface, and hydrological processes in various categories of time and space [14,15] and the approach of one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) has been widely applied [16,17]. For instance, Karlsson et al [18] modeled the combined effects of land use and climate changes on the hydrology for a catchment located in Denmark. Zhao et al [19] evaluated the climate variability and land use influences on green and blue water resource in Weihe River basin, NW China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Separation of the Climatic and Land Cover Impacts on the Flow Regime Changes in Two Watersheds of Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Yang

Feng

Yin

et al. 2017

Advances in Meteorology

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Assessment of the effects of climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) on the flow regimes in watershed regions is a fundamental research need in terms of the sustainable water resources management and ecosocial developments. In this study, a statistical and modeling integrated method utilizing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been adopted in two watersheds of northeastern Tibetan Plateau to separate the individual impacts of climate and LUCC on the flow regime metrics. The integrated effects of both LUCC and climate change have led to an increase in the annual streamflow in the Yingluoxia catchment (YLC) region and a decline in the Minxian catchment (MXC) region by 3.2% and 4.3% of their total streamflow, respectively. Climate change has shown an increase in streamflow in YLC and a decline in MXC region, occupying 107.3% and 93.75% of the total streamflow changes, respectively, a reflection of climatic latitude effect on streamflow. It is thus construed that the climatic factors contribute to more significant influence than LUCC on the magnitude, variability, duration, and component of the flow regimes, implying that the climate certainly dominates the flow regime changes in northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

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Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

Cited by 179 publications

References 68 publications

Spatial pattern evaluation of a calibrated national hydrological model – a remote-sensing-based diagnostic approach

Spatial pattern evaluation of a calibrated national hydrological model – a remote-sensing-based diagnostic approach

Integrated Modeling of Land and Water Resources in two African Catchments

Separation of the Climatic and Land Cover Impacts on the Flow Regime Changes in Two Watersheds of Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

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