2002
DOI: 10.1145/568760.568833
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Abstract: The uncertainty of a software development effort estimate may be described through a prediction interval, e.g., that the most likely use of effort is 1.500 work-hours and that it is 90 % probable (90% confidence level) that the actual use of effort will be between 1.000 (minimum) and 2.000 (maximum) work-hours. Previous studies suggest that software development effort prediction intervals are, on average, much too narrow to reflect high confidence levels, i.e., the uncertainty is under-estimated. This paper a…

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