Combination of biomarker with clinical risk factors for prediction of severe acute kidney injury in critically ill patients

Abstract

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurs commonly in the intensive care unit (ICU). Insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7 (IGFBP7) and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 (TIMP-2), known as [TIMP-2] x [IGFBP7] (NephroCheck), have been identified as novel biomarkers for the prediction of AKI risk. However, the effective use of disease biomarkers is indispensable from an appropriate clinical context. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to find risk factors and assess the performance of the combination of NephroCheck with risk factors, so as to provide feasible information for AKI prediction.Methods: All patients who were admitted in the ICU ( from June 2016 to July 2017) participated in the study. The primary outcome was the detection of severe AKI within the first seven days after patients being admitted to the ICU. The predictors were separated into three categories: chronic risk factors, acute risk factors and biochemical indicators. Results: The study included 577 patients. 96 patients developed to severe AKI (16.6%) within seven days. In addition to NephroCheck (+) (OR=2.139, 95% CI (1.260-3.630), P =0.005), age >65 years (OR=1.961, 95% CI (1.153-3.336), P=0.013), CKD (OR=2.573, 95% CI (1.319-5.018), P=0.006) and PCT (+)(OR=3.223, 95% CI (1.643-6.321), P=0.001) were also the independent predictors of severe AKI within seven days. Compared to NephroCheck (+) only (AUC=0.66, 95% CI:0.60-0.72), the combination of NephroCheck (+) and risk factors (age>65years, CKD and PCT positive) (AUC=0.75, 95% CI:0.70-0.81) led to a significant increase in the area under ROC curve for severe AKI prediction within seven days.Conclusions: Although NephroCheck is an effective screening tool for recognizing high-risk patients, we found that combination with biomarker and risk factors (age>65years, CKD, procalcitonin positive) for risk assessment of AKI has the greatest significance to patients with uncertain disease trajectories.