Coal communities and the U.S. energy transition: A policy corridors assessment

Roemer, Kelli; Haggerty, Julia H.

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112112

Cited by 46 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Given the large committed emissions from current fossil fuel infrastructure [8] and the need to quickly reduce emissions from coal, minimizing construction of new coal plants will be essential to meet climate goals. Previous research has quantified the risks posed by potential future emissions from existing energy infrastructure (including the coal sector) and fossil fuel reserves at global and regional levels [9][10][11][12][13][14]. Even with rapid implementation of a no new coal strategy, additional action to shorten lifetimes or reduce capacity factors of existing plants will likely be necessary to meet the 1.5 • C or 2 • C goals [15,16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C

Edwards

Cui

Bindl

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Momentum to phase out unabated coal use is growing globally. This transition is critical to meeting the Paris climate goals but can potentially lead to large amounts of stranded assets, especially in regions with newer and growing coal fleets. Here we combine plant-level data with a global integrated assessment model to quantify changes in global stranded asset risks from coal-fired power plants across regions and over time. With new plant proposals, cancellations, and retirements over the past five years, global net committed emissions in 2030 from existing and planned coal plants declined by 3.3 GtCO2 (25%). While these emissions are now roughly in line with initial Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, they remain far off track from longer-term climate goals. Progress made in 2021 towards no new coal can potentially avoid a 24% (503 GW) increase in capacity and a 55% ($520 billion) increase in stranded assets under 1.5οC. Stranded asset risks fall disproportionately on emerging Asian economies with newer and growing coal fleets. Recent no new coal commitments from major coal financers can potentially reduce stranding of international investments by over 50%.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C

Edwards

Cui

Bindl

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The regional tax base in both regions is decreasing indicating regional downturn [122,124]. Even though coal mined in Appalachia and PRB is of different quality and differently impacted by environmental regulations, both regions face similar challenges due to their legacy: remoteness from industrial centers, lack of skilled workforce, an economic dependence on the coal industry and local identities, cultures and expectations connected to the coal industry [119,122,125]. Regional strategies differ, as some regions, such as the PRB, aim to find new opportunities for coal mining through coal exports [119,122,125], whereas others introduce legislation to end power generation from coal and plan a coal phase-out [125].…”

Section: Phase 2: Usamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nevertheless, the case of the USA highlights the risk of backlash to coal decline: both regions and the industry have lobbied for support of coal in the face of decline, which has affected the PAS [119,122]. Attempts to manage this backlash include the 'Partnerships for Opportunity and Workforce and Economic Revitalization (POWER) Initiative' and the 'Assistance to Coal Communities' [125]. However, the debate around coal decline remained highly polarized, with strong support for Donald Trump coming from some coal regions due to his support of the industry [122].…”

Section: Phase 2: Usamentioning

confidence: 99%

Phases of fossil fuel decline: Diagnostic framework for policy sequencing and feasible transition pathways in resource dependent regions

2022

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Phasing out fossil fuels requires destabilizing incumbent regimes while protecting vulnerable groups negatively affected by fossil fuel decline. We argue that sequencing destabilization and just transition policies addresses three policy problems: phasing out fossil fuels, transforming affected industries, and ensuring socio-economic recovery in fossil resource-dependent regions. We identify the key mechanisms shaping the evolution of the three systems associated with these policy problems: (1) transformations of technological systems addressed by the socio-technical transitions literature; (2) responses of firms and industries addressed by the management and business literature; and (3) regional strategies for socio-economic recovery addressed by the regional geography and economics literatures. We then draw on Elinor Ostrom’s approach to synthesize these different bodies of knowledge into a diagnostic tool which enables scholars to identify the phase of decline for each system, across which the nature and importance of different risks to sustained fossil fuel decline varies. The main risk in the first phase is lock-in or persistence of status quo. In the second phase, the main risk is backlash from directly affected companies and workers. In the third phase the main risk is regional despondence. We illustrate our diagnostic tool with three empirical cases of phases of coal decline: South Africa (phase 1), the United States (phase 2), and the Netherlands (phase 3). Our review contributes to developing effective policy sequences for phasing out fossil fuels.

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“…Without explicit planning, the transition is likely to face major challenges like local economic busts, highly inequitable access to high quality energy and infrastructure systems, and poor coordination for system‐level characteristics like reliability, accessibility, and affordability. Already, evidence from the uncoordinated US coal transition shows increased potential for negative outcomes like economic hardship (e.g., from lost tax revenues and jobs), unfunded obligations (e.g., pensions, remediation commitments, maintenance and monitoring), identity and governance disruptions, and loss of resilience (Haggerty et al, 2018; Macey & Salovaara, 2019; Roemer & Haggerty, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Designing the mid‐transition: A review of medium‐term challenges for coordinated decarbonization in the United States

Grubert

Hastings‐Simon

2022

WIREs Climate Change

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Decarbonizing the energy system is critical for addressing climate change. Given the dominance of fossil fuels in the energy system, decarbonization requires rapid and significant industrial transition of the energy supply at scale. This includes explicit and coordinated plans not only for zero carbon phase-in, but for fossil carbon phase-out. Even very rapid decarbonization will likely take decades, leading to a medium-term future where the conventional, fossil-based energy system coexists with a new, zero-carbon energy system. Each imposes operational constraints on the other: what we call the mid-transition. Notably, this coexistence means that the new, zero-carbon system will develop under fossil carbon system constraints. The mid-transition will therefore likely require specific analytical metrics designed to support decision making under dynamic and uncertain conditions. Many aspects of transition will be felt, and shaped, directly by individuals because of our direct interactions with energy systems.Even rare missteps are likely to have significant and potentially system designrelevant impacts on perception, political support, and implementation. Comparisons of the new system to the old system are likely to rest on experience of a world less affected by climate change, such that concerns about lower reliability, higher costs, and other challenges might be perceived as inherent to zero-carbon systems, versus energy systems facing consequences of climate change and longterm underinvestment. This review assesses and evaluates medium-term challenges associated with the mid-transition in the United States, emphasizing the need for explicit planning for joint and coordinated phase-in and phase-out.

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Coal communities and the U.S. energy transition: A policy corridors assessment

Cited by 46 publications

References 44 publications

Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C

Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C

Phases of fossil fuel decline: Diagnostic framework for policy sequencing and feasible transition pathways in resource dependent regions

Designing the mid‐transition: A review of medium‐term challenges for coordinated decarbonization in the United States

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