Climate drives adaptive genetic responses associated with survival in big sagebrush (<i>Artemisia tridentata</i>)

Chaney, Lindsay; Richardson, Bryce A.; Germino, Matthew J.

doi:10.1111/eva.12440

Cited by 36 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…Climatically driven genetic differences of big sagebrush could further accentuate the disparity between the effects of climate and anthropogenic variables. Such genetic differences affect both sagebrush survival (Chaney, Richardson, & Germino, ) and its postfire recovery (Brabec, Germino, & Richardson, ). In our study, different big sagebrush subspecies were modeled collectively (at the species level), but the subordinate taxa have been shown to respond differently to climate (Doherty et al, ) and fire (Brabec et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional‐scale species distribution models—A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Requena‐Mullor

Maguire

Shinneman

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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Species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on regional‐scale environmental variables will play a key role in forecasting species occurrence in the face of climate change. However, in the Anthropocene, a number of local‐scale anthropogenic variables, including wildfire history, land‐use change, invasive species, and ecological restoration practices can override regional‐scale variables to drive patterns of species distribution. Incorporating these human‐induced factors into SDMs remains a major research challenge, in part because spatial variability in these factors occurs at fine scales, rendering prediction over regional extents problematic. Here, we used big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) as a model species to explore whether including human‐induced factors improves the fit of the SDM. We applied a Bayesian hurdle spatial approach using 21,753 data points of field‐sampled vegetation obtained from the LANDFIRE program to model sagebrush occurrence and cover by incorporating fire history metrics and restoration treatments from 1980 to 2015 throughout the Great Basin of North America. Models including fire attributes and restoration treatments performed better than those including only climate and topographic variables. Number of fires and fire occurrence had the strongest relative effects on big sagebrush occurrence and cover, respectively. The models predicted that the probability of big sagebrush occurrence decreases by 1.2% (95% CI: −6.9%, 0.6%) when one fire occurs and cover decreases by 44.7% (95% CI: −47.9%, −41.3%) if at least one fire occurred over the 36 year period of record. Restoration practices increased the probability of big sagebrush occurrence but had minimal effect on cover. Our results demonstrate the potential value of including disturbance and land management along with climate in models to predict species distributions. As an increasing number of datasets representing land‐use history become available, we anticipate that our modeling framework will have broad relevance across a range of biomes and species.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional‐scale species distribution models—A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Requena‐Mullor

Maguire

Shinneman

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

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“…The seed‐zone/ecoregion GLM analyses guided our parameterizing of a more comprehensive test of relative importance of the variables to survival, using forward stepwise regression with Akaike Information Criterion (AIC c ; corrected for small sample sizes) and allowing the algorithm to add the following potential explanatory variables provided they were significant (at P < 0.05) prior to inclusion at each step: climate‐group/ecoregion separately or combined as determined from the GLMs, and differences between population origin and garden in geographic distance, latitude, elevation, mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, summer precipitation (July, August; based on Chaney et al. ), maximum annual temperature, minimum annual temperature, and difference in maximum and minimum annual temperature. Also, based on Renwick et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive variation, including local adaptation, requires decades to become evident in common gardens

Germino

Moser

Sands³

2019

Ecological Applications

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Population‐level adaptation to spatial variation in factors such as climate and soils is critical for climate‐vulnerability assessments, restoration seeding, and other ecological applications in species management, and the underlying information is typically based on common‐garden studies that are short duration. Here, we show >20 yr were required for adaptive differences to emerge among 13 populations of a widespread shrub (sagebrush, Artemisia tridentata ssp wyomingensis) collected from around the western United States and planted into common gardens. Additionally, >10 yr were required for greater survival of local populations, that is, local adaptation, to become evident. Variation in survival was best explained by the combination of populations’ home ecoregion combined with grouping of minimum temperature and aridity. Additional reductions in survival were explained by ungrouped (i.e., continuous) measures of garden‐to‐population‐origin separation in geographic distance (5% decrease in survival per 100 km increase in separation; R2 = 0.22) and especially in minimum temperature in younger plants (−4% per + °C difference, R2 = 0.56 vs. 0.29 in the 14th vs. 27th post‐planting years, respectively). Longer‐term common garden studies are needed. While we await them, uncertainty in adaptive variation resulting from short‐term observations could be quantitatively estimated and reported with seed‐transfer guidelines to reduce risks of introducing maladapted provenances in restoration.

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“…, Chaney et al. ). Populations of A. tridentata from more continental climates had higher survival rates, especially at the coldest garden, Ephraim (Table ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…See Chaney et al. () for more detail on seed collection, processing, seedling rearing, and common garden establishment.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate‐based seed transfer of a widespread shrub: population shifts, restoration strategies, and the trailing edge

Richardson

Chaney

2018

Ecological Applications

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Genetic resources have to be managed appropriately to mitigate the impact of climate change. For many wildland plants, conservation will require knowledge of the climatic factors affecting intraspecific genetic variation to minimize maladaptation. Knowledge of the interaction between traits and climate can focus management resources on vulnerable populations, provide guidance for seed transfer, and enhance fitness and resilience under changing climates. In this study, traits of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) were examined among common gardens located in different climates. We focus on two subspecies, wyomingensis and tridentata, that occupy the most imperiled warm-dry spectrum of the sagebrush biome. Populations collected across the sagebrush biome were recorded for flower phenology and survival. Mixed-effects models examined each trait to evaluate genetic variation, environmental effects, and adaptive breadth of populations. Climate variables derived from population-source locations were significantly associated with these traits (P < 0.0001), explaining 31% and 11% of the flower phenology and survival variation, respectively. To illustrate our model and assess variability in prediction, we examine fixed and focal point seed transfer approaches to map contemporary and climate model ensemble projections in two different regions of the sagebrush biome. A comparison of seed transfer areas predicts that populations from warmer climates become more prevalent, replacing colder-adapted populations by mid-century. However, these warm-adapted populations are often located along the trailing edge, margins of the species range predicted to be lost due to a contraction of the climatic niche. Management efforts should focus on the collection and conservation of vulnerable populations and prudent seed transfer to colder regions where these populations are projected to occur by mid-century. Our models provide the foundation to develop an empirical, climate-based seed transfer system for current and future restoration of big sagebrush.

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Climate drives adaptive genetic responses associated with survival in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata)

Cited by 36 publications

References 72 publications

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional‐scale species distribution models—A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Integrating anthropogenic factors into regional‐scale species distribution models—A novel application in the imperiled sagebrush biome

Adaptive variation, including local adaptation, requires decades to become evident in common gardens

Climate‐based seed transfer of a widespread shrub: population shifts, restoration strategies, and the trailing edge

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