Climate change and dengue fever transmission in China: Evidences and challenges

Li, Chenlu; Lu, Yongmei; Liu, Jianing; Wu, Xiaoxu

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.326

Cited by 78 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…In addition, we found annual minimum temperature, land cover, annual average precipitation, altitude, and annual mean temperature have significant nonlinear correlation with dengue occurrence. This result was in accordance with previous studies focusing on Guangdong Province (Carvalho et al, 2017;Mweya et al, 2016;Li et al, 2018;Xiang et al, 2017;Wu et al, 2018). For example, Xiang et al referred to the maximum temperature ranging from 21.6 to 32.9 and the minimum temperature from 11.2 to 23.7 as optimal to dengue transmission (Xiang et al, 2017), which was coincident with this study.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Specifically, the analysis of space-time scan statistics reflected significant clusters located in Pearl River Delta regions and the border area of Yunnan Province. The results of global spatial autocorrelation showed the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of dengue cases, with significant spatial correlation that occurred in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2017, which is presumably due to the suitable climate and environmental conditions, human activities and vector density (Mweya et al, 2016;Li et al, 2018;Enduri and Jolad, 2018;Schmidt et al, 2011). Moreover, LISA analysis identified the high-high spots were mainly concentrated in some counties of Guangdong and Yunnan Provinces, which was in accordance with the results of space-time scan statistics.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of dengue at county level in China from 2005–2017

Liu¹,

Sun²,

Liu³

et al. 2018

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of dengue at county level in China from 2005–2017

Liu¹,

Sun²,

Liu³

et al. 2018

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

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“…However, the effects of pre-summer rainfall on dengue incidence around southern China are often ignored since the rainfall season normally has a lead time up to three to five months before the outbreaks. These lag effects were often not considered in many of the previous studies in this region [22][23][24][25] .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of seasonal climate variability on dengue annual incidence in Hong Kong: A modelling study

Yuan

Liang

Lin

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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In recent years, dengue has been rapidly spreading and growing in the tropics and subtropics. Located in southern China, Hong Kong's subtropical monsoon climate may favour dengue vector populations and increase the chance of disease transmissions during the rainy summer season. An increase in local dengue incidence has been observed in Hong Kong ever since the first case in 2002, with an outbreak reaching historically high case numbers in 2018. However, the effects of seasonal climate variability on recent outbreaks are unknown. As the local cases were found to be spatially clustered, we developed a Poisson generalized linear mixed model using pre-summer monthly total rainfall and mean temperature to predict annual dengue incidence (the majority of local cases occur during or after the summer months), over the period 2002-2018 in three pre-defined areas of Hong Kong. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, 5 out of 6 observations of area-specific outbreaks during the major outbreak years 2002 and 2018 were able to be predicted. 42 out of a total of 51 observations (82.4%) were within the 95% confidence interval of the annual incidence predicted by our model. Our study found that the rainfall before and during the East Asian monsoon (pre-summer) rainy season is negatively correlated with the annual incidence in Hong Kong while the temperature is positively correlated. Hence, as mosquito control measures in Hong Kong are intensified mainly when heavy rainfalls occur during or close to summer, our study suggests that a lower-than-average intensity of pre-summer rainfall should also be taken into account as an indicator of increased dengue risk.Dengue is one of the most prevalent vector-borne arboviruses, transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. The number of dengue cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) has increased steadily from an average of less than a thousand cases per year globally in the 1950s to over 3.34 million in 2016 1,2 . Moreover, a recent study estimated that 390 million dengue infections occur each year 3 while another indicated that 3.9 billion people in 128 countries are at risk of infection 4 . The number of cases is still increasing as the disease spreads to new areas and explosive outbreaks occur. This global expansion of dengue virus (DENV) can be due to several causes, including environmental and climate factors. Climate is an important determinant of vector-borne disease epidemics as it directly influences the abundance and distribution of the vector. Together with environmental factors such as the degree of urbanisation, climate variations may result in the geographic expansion of mosquitoes and dengue into new areas 5 .Studies have shown that a positive association exists between temperature and dengue transmission 6-9 . One possible reason is that warmer temperatures lead to a higher abundance of Aedes mosquitoes by increasing their survival and development rates 10,11 . Furthermore, the extrinsic incubation period (EIP; the time required for viruses to become transmis...

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“…Climate change impacts are also proven to affect the human health. To a certain extent, SSFM are exposed to health problems related to dengue (Franchini & Mannucci, 2015;C. Li, Lu, Liu, & Wu, 2018), asthma, unexpected heatrelated mortality, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (Bernstein & Rice, 2013;Chen et al, 2017;T.…”

Section: The Impacts Of Climate Change On the Socioeconomic Aspects Omentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Affecting Small-Scale Fishermen’s Adaptation Toward the Impacts of Climate Change: Reflections From Malaysian Fishers

et al. 2019

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This study aims to examine the influence of individual differences on the small-scale fishermen’s climate change adaptation practices toward climate change. This is a descriptive correlational study on 400 small-scale fishermen living in four climate change–affected areas in Malaysia, which were selected based on a multistage cluster sampling. In conclusion, it was found that age, income, and fishing experience recorded a significant relationship with climate change adaptation practices, whereas their household size did not yield any relationship with the adaptation practices. Furthermore, a number of small-scale fishermen who use fisheries technologies, have alternative jobs, and possess higher education have recorded better climate change adaptation practices compared with nonusers, full-timers, and less educated fishermen. Several recommendations were made to assist the concerned parties in developing better adaptation strategies that are fitted to the fishermen’s needs, interests, and abilities.

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Climate change and dengue fever transmission in China: Evidences and challenges

Cited by 78 publications

References 46 publications

Spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of dengue at county level in China from 2005–2017

Spatiotemporal patterns and determinants of dengue at county level in China from 2005–2017

The effects of seasonal climate variability on dengue annual incidence in Hong Kong: A modelling study

Factors Affecting Small-Scale Fishermen’s Adaptation Toward the Impacts of Climate Change: Reflections From Malaysian Fishers

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