Climate and Tickborne Encephalitis

Lindgren, Elisabet

doi:10.5751/es-00037-020105

Cited by 18 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(40 reference statements)

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“…However, reliable data on TBE are available from some localized areas, for example from Stockholm County in Sweden where a surveillance programme ran for four decades after an outbreak in the late 1950s. Changes in incidence of TBE in the county during this time period have been shown to be related to changes in daily seasonal climate represented by "accumulated temperature days" (Lindgren, 1998;Lindgren & Gustafson, 2001). These TBE findings are of interest for the understanding of changes in LB prevalence as the incidences of both diseases show similar annual patterns, as shown in Fig.…”

Section: Observed Effects Of Recent Climate Variations In Europementioning

confidence: 78%

“…In some places this may be an effect of better reporting over time. However, studies from localized areas that have reliable long-term surveillance data show that such incidence increases are real, and that they are related to the same climatic factors that have been shown to be linked to changes in tick abundance (Lindgren, 1998;Lindgren & Gustafson, 2001;Daniel et al, 2004).…”

Section: Lyme Borreliosismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Long-term studies covering several decades have shown that tick density, as well as disease risk during a particular year, is linked to the number of days per season with temperatures favourable for tick activity, development and year-round survival during two successive years previous to the one studied (Lindgren, 1998;Lindgren et al, 2000;Lindgren & Gustafson, 2001). Such climatic conditions do not only have direct effects on the tick's survival and life-cycle dynamics but create indirect implications for tick prevalence and disease risk (Fig.…”

Section: Indirect Effects Of Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

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Incidence and hospitalisation rates of Lyme borreliosis, France, 2004 to 2012

et al. 2014

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Section: Observed Effects Of Recent Climate Variations In Europementioning

confidence: 78%

Section: Lyme Borreliosismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Indirect Effects Of Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

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Incidence and hospitalisation rates of Lyme borreliosis, France, 2004 to 2012

et al. 2014

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“…Lindgren suggested that more ticks might survive in a mild winter in host and reservoir animals [17]. Due to an early arrival of the spring and/or late arrival of the next winter, ticks will be active for an extended period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographical Environment Factors and Risk Assessment of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Hulunbuir, Northeastern China

Wang

Gao

et al. 2017

IJERPH

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Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is one of natural foci diseases transmitted by ticks. Its distribution and transmission are closely related to geographic and environmental factors. Identification of environmental determinates of TBE is of great importance to understanding the general distribution of existing and potential TBE natural foci. Hulunbuir, one of the most severe endemic areas of the disease, is selected as the study area. Statistical analysis, global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis, and regression methods were applied to detect the spatiotemporal characteristics, compare the impact degree of associated factors, and model the risk distribution using the heterogeneity. The statistical analysis of gridded geographic and environmental factors and TBE incidence show that the TBE patients mainly occurred during spring and summer and that there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation between the distribution of TBE cases and environmental characteristics. The impact degree of these factors on TBE risks has the following descending order: temperature, relative humidity, vegetation coverage, precipitation and topography. A high-risk area with a triangle shape was determined in the central part of Hulunbuir; the low-risk area is located in the two belts next to the outside edge of the central triangle. The TBE risk distribution revealed that the impact of the geographic factors changed depending on the heterogeneity.

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“…Further south, in areas with medium to high tick densities, further increases in tick abundance were related to a combination of milder winters (fewer days with minimum temperatures below 7 7 8C) and extended spring and autumn seasons (more days with minimum temperatures of 5^8 8C). Using the excellent national registration of TBE cases in Sweden since the 1950s, Lindgren (1998b) related the increase in TBE incidence from 1960 to 1995 in Stockholm County, a high-endemic region, to higher winter temperatures permitting a prolonged season of tick activity and hence pathogen transmission. Here the major increase occurred from 1984 onwards: 1960^1983, mean annual cases 18.6 (range 6^36); 1984^1995, mean annual cases 45.1 (range 33^74).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fragile transmission cycles of tick-borne encephalitis virus may be disrupted by predicted climate change

Randolph

Rogers

2000

Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B

151

101

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Repeated predictions that vector-borne disease prevalence will increase with global warming are usually based on univariate models. To accommodate the full range of constraints, the present-day distribution of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEv) was matched statistically to current climatic variables, to provide a multivariate description of present-day areas of disease risk. This was then applied to outputs of a general circulation model that predicts how climatic variables may change in the future, and future distributions of TBEv were predicted for them. The expected summer rise in temperature and decrease in moisture appears to drive the distribution of TBEv into higher-latitude and higher-altitude regions progressively through the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The ¢nal toe-hold in the 2080s may be con¢ned to a small part of Scandinavia, including new foci in southern Finland. The reason for this apparent contraction of the range of TBEv is that its transmission cycles depend on a particular pattern of tick seasonal dynamics, which may be disrupted by climate change. The observed marked increase in incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in most parts of Europe since 1993 may be due to non-biological causes, such as political and sociological changes.

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Climate and Tickborne Encephalitis

Abstract: Abstract•

Cited by 18 publications

References 35 publications

Incidence and hospitalisation rates of Lyme borreliosis, France, 2004 to 2012

Incidence and hospitalisation rates of Lyme borreliosis, France, 2004 to 2012

Geographical Environment Factors and Risk Assessment of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Hulunbuir, Northeastern China

Fragile transmission cycles of tick-borne encephalitis virus may be disrupted by predicted climate change

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