Changing Determinants of Low Fertility and Diffusion: a Spatial Analysis for Italy

Vitali, Agnese; Billari, Francesco C.

doi:10.1002/psp.1998

Cited by 68 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Over this period, we have witnessed substantial spatiotemporal variation both in the timing of the onset of increases in nonmarital childbearing and in the intensity of these increases over time (Klüsener et al, ; Perelli‐Harris et al, ; for Latin America, see Laplante, Castro‐Martín, Cortina, & Martín‐García, ). The fact that demographic changes are dependent on the compositional characteristics of populations and the prevailing contextual socioeconomic and policy conditions contributed to this spatiotemporal variation (Coale & Watkins, ; Lesthaeghe, ; Liefbroer & Billari, ; Vitali & Billari, ). It has therefore been argued that more research is needed on the question of how such aspects are shaping variation (Billari, ; Kuijsten, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why are marriage and family formation increasingly disconnected across Europe? A multilevel perspective on existing theories

Lappegård

Klüsener

Vignoli

2017

Population Space and Place

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Childbearing outside of marriage has increased drastically in recent decades. However, the existing explanations for this development are not coherent. Proponents of the Second Demographic Transition framework view the rise in nonmarital childbearing as part of a pattern of progress driven by processes such as emancipation from traditional social norms, whereas other scholars perceive this trend in the context of a “pattern of disadvantage,” as nonmarital births are often concentrated among lower socioeconomic groups. In this paper, we posit that the relevance of the aforementioned theoretical explanations might vary depending on the geographic scale at which variation occurs: that is, across nation states, subnational regions, or individuals. To explore this hypothesis, we analyse harmonised survey data from 16 European countries. We apply hierarchical models to study how the likelihood that a woman living in a couple will have her first child either within nonmarital cohabitation or within marriage is linked to national and subnational regional variation in socioeconomic conditions that are related to explanations based on the existing theoretical considerations. Our results suggest that the Second Demographic Transition framework is very important for understanding variation between countries, whereas arguments pointing to a pattern of disadvantage seem to be more relevant at the individual and subnational regional level. It thus appears that taking a multilevel perspective can help us better understand why the existing theoretical explanations are not fully coherent.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why are marriage and family formation increasingly disconnected across Europe? A multilevel perspective on existing theories

Lappegård

Klüsener

Vignoli

2017

Population Space and Place

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“…Fertility rates decreased in Italy in the period 1971–1991 at similar paces across regions (Vitali & Billari, ). Between 1991 and 2011, the trend has come to a stop, and there has been a growth of the total fertility rate by 8.7% nationally.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 90%

Explaining subnational variations in early childhood education and care. A fuzzy‐set analysis of the Italian case

2019

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Although cross‐country differences in the development of early childhood education and care (ECEC) services have been widely researched, the pronounced subnational variation that characterizes many countries is little researched. This article aims to contribute filling this gap by investigating the factors underlying ECEC development in Italian regions, where take‐up rates of public and subsidized daycare centers, behind a national average of 12%, range from 2% in some Southern regions to 25% in Emilia Romagna (North‐East). The article explores the configurations of economic, socio‐demographic, political, institutional, and cultural factors possibly responsible for high and low ECEC development through Fuzzy‐set/Qualitative Comparative Analysis. Results show that economic development and female employment are necessary but not sufficient conditions for ECEC development; similarly, familistic values, the lack of early ECEC development and of social capital are necessary but not sufficient conditions for limited expansion. The analysis identifies multifaceted patterns of (non)expansion, thus demonstrating the complexity of social policy development processes and preventing determinism based on need, cultural, or economic factors.

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“…If the residuals showed evidence of statistically significant spatial autocorrelation, we fitted appropriate spatial autoregressive models (Anselin and Bera 1998;Duncan et al 2012;Bivand, Pebesma, and Gomez-Rubio 2013). The Lagrange Multiplier test was applied to indicate the proper specification for the data and to choose between the spatial lag and the spatial 12 Spatial lag models have been often used to study fertility change where theoretical motivation is grounded on spatial interaction, diffusion, and social influence (Montgomery and Casterline 1993;Goldstein and Klüsener 2014;Vitali and Billari 2017). Spatial error models, on the other hand, deal with spatial correlation in prediction 'errors' in terms of nuisance.…”

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confidence: 99%

The geography of early childhood mortality in England and Wales, 1881–1911

Jaadla¹,

Reid²

2017

DemRes

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BACKGROUNDConsiderable regional variation existed in 19th-century infant mortality (IMR) in England and Wales. OBJECTIVEThis study estimates early childhood mortality (ECMR) for over 2,000 registration subdistricts (RSDs) of England and Wales and analyses spatial and temporal variations in IMR and ECMR between 1881 and 1911. METHODSThe combination of mortality statistics from the Registrar General and individual-level census data from the Integrated Census Microdata (I-CeM) project is used to estimate spatial models of the relationship between early childhood death rates and a range of district-specific contextual variables. RESULTS All regions of England andWales experienced noticeable decline in early childhood mortality, but the spatial patterns were remarkably persistent, with high mortality in London and in the mining and textile centres. The earlier decline of childhood than infant mortality produced a widening gap between them, and in early phases this development was concentrated along the East-Midlands coastal area from Suffolk to North Yorkshire, and in mid-Wales. This gap continued to widen, and in 1911 IMR was at least twice as high as ECMR in most parts of England and Wales. CONCLUSIONThe changing spatial pattern of ECMR was influenced by a set of factors over and

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Changing Determinants of Low Fertility and Diffusion: a Spatial Analysis for Italy

Cited by 68 publications

References 64 publications

Why are marriage and family formation increasingly disconnected across Europe? A multilevel perspective on existing theories

Why are marriage and family formation increasingly disconnected across Europe? A multilevel perspective on existing theories

Explaining subnational variations in early childhood education and care. A fuzzy‐set analysis of the Italian case

The geography of early childhood mortality in England and Wales, 1881–1911

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