Changes in frost, snow and Baltic sea ice by the end of the twenty-first century based on climate model projections for Europe

Abstract

Changes in indices related to frost and snow in Europe by the end of the twentyfirst century were analyzed based on experiments performed with seven regional climate models (RCMs). All the RCMs regionalized information from the same general circulation model (GCM), applying the IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing scenario. In addition, some simulations used SRES B2 radiative forcing and/or boundary conditions provided by an alternative GCM. Ice cover over the Baltic Sea was examined using a statistical model that related the annual maximum extent of ice to wintertime coastal temperatures. Fewer days with frost and snow, shorter frost seasons, a smaller liquid water equivalent of snow, and milder sea ice conditions were produced by all model simulations, irrespective of the forcing scenario and the driving GCM. The projected changes have implications across a diverse range of human activities. Details of the projections were subject to differences in RCM design, deviations between the boundary conditions of the driving GCMs, uncertainties in future emissions and random effects due to internal climate variability. A larger number of GCMs as drivers of the RCMs would most likely have resulted in somewhat wider ranges in the frost, snow and sea ice estimates than those presented in this paper.

Observed cold season changes in a Fennoscandian fell area over the past three decades

“…However, the duration of snow cover was significantly shortened during the study period. This is in agreement with the results of Jylhä et al (2008) that suggest fewer days with snow by the end of this century.…”

Climate of Moscow Region South: Current Trends and Assessment of the Anomality

“…Как показали наши исследования, зимнее поте-пление ведет также к существенному охлаждению почв и увеличению числа циклов промерзания-оттаивания (Kurganova et al, 2017). Потепление зим, про-являющееся в последние десятилетия в более позднем установлении снежного покрова, сокращении его высоты и регулярном нарушении его целостности наблюдается также и в северных регионах Европы, в США и Канаде (Henry, 2008;Jylha et al, 2008;Kreyling, Henry, 2011;Groffman et al, 2012). Уменьше-ние высоты снежного покрова в бореальной и суббореальной зонах вызывает снижение изолирующего действия снежного покрова, ведет к значительному охлаждению почв и их более глубокому и длительному промерзанию (Hardy et al, 2001;Bokhorst et al, 2012).…”

Local and regional variability in snow conditions in northern Finland: A reindeer herding perspective

“…In longer and more comprehensive data sets, e.g., winter air temperatures have showed increasing trends in several locations in Finnish reindeer management area (Irannezhad et al 2014a, b;Kivinen and Rasmus 2014), while duration of the snow season has declined . During warmer winters in the future (Kivinen et al 2012;Stocker et al 2013), it is probable that the snow season will get shorter, snow amounts will change, and snow structure get icier (Rasmus et al 2004;Jylhä et al 2008;Räisänen and Eklund 2012). This means also change in the limits for rare and exceptional events, and reindeer herding need to adapt to new kind of winter conditions.…”