Cause-specific premature death from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India: Estimate adjusted for baseline mortality

Chowdhury, Sourangsu; Dey, Sagnik

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2016.03.004

Cited by 193 publications

(132 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The IER has been used in a number of recent studies9525354555657 and allows for age-dependent calculation of relative risk for five different diseases (RR d ) associated with PM 2.5 exposure: lower respiratory infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, ischemic heart disease and stroke.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population exposure to hazardous air quality due to the 2015 fires in Equatorial Asia

Crippa

Castruccio

Archer‐Nicholls

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

181

188

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Vegetation and peatland fires cause poor air quality and thousands of premature deaths across densely populated regions in Equatorial Asia. Strong El-Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are associated with an increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires in Indonesia and Borneo, enhancing population exposure to hazardous concentrations of smoke and air pollutants. Here we investigate the impact on air quality and population exposure of wildfires in Equatorial Asia during Fall 2015, which were the largest over the past two decades. We performed high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry based on a new fire emission product. The model captures the spatio-temporal variability of extreme pollution episodes relative to space- and ground-based observations and allows for identification of pollution sources and transport over Equatorial Asia. We calculate that high particulate matter concentrations from fires during Fall 2015 were responsible for persistent exposure of 69 million people to unhealthy air quality conditions. Short-term exposure to this pollution may have caused 11,880 (6,153–17,270) excess mortalities. Results from this research provide decision-relevant information to policy makers regarding the impact of land use changes and human driven deforestation on fire frequency and population exposure to degraded air quality.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population exposure to hazardous air quality due to the 2015 fires in Equatorial Asia

Crippa

Castruccio

Archer‐Nicholls

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

181

188

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“…Baseline mortality rates below 65 years of age are similar for all diseases between IFs and GBD2016 (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2018), while above 65 years of age IFs has larger values for respiratory diseases (ALRI and COPD) and smaller for cardiovascular diseases (IHD and CEV) and LC relative to the GBD2016. We found in previous work estimating long-term premature mortality from exposure to ambient PM 2.5 in India (Conibear et al, 2018) that estimates using state-specific baseline mortality rates (Chowdhury & Dey, 2016) agreed within 3% of estimates using GBD2015 baseline mortality rates (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2018). Shapefiles were used to split disease burden estimates for India at the country and state level (ICF International, 2017).…”

Section: Future Demographics and Baseline Mortality Rates In Indiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India

Conibear

Butt

Knote³

et al. 2018

GeoHealth

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Exposure to high concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is a leading risk factor for public health in India causing a large burden of disease. Business-as-usual economic and industrial growth in India is predicted to increase emissions, worsen air quality, and increase the associated disease burden in future decades. Here we use a high-resolution online-coupled model to estimate the impacts of different air pollution control pathways on ambient PM 2.5 concentrations and human health in India. We find that with no change in emissions, the disease burden from exposure to ambient PM 2.5 in 2050 will increase by 75% relative to 2015, due to population aging and growth increasing the number of people susceptible to air pollution. We estimate that the International Energy Agencies New Policy Scenario (NPS) and Clean Air Scenario (CAS) in 2050 can reduce ambient PM 2.5 concentrations below 2015 levels by 9% and 68%, respectively, offsetting 61,000 and 610,000 premature mortalities a year, which is 9% and 91% of the projected increase in premature mortalities due to population growth and aging. Throughout India, the CAS stands out as the most effective scenario to reduce ambient PM 2.5 concentrations and the associated disease burden, reducing the 2050 mortality rate per 100,000 below 2015 control levels by 15%. However, even under such stringent emission control policies, population growth and aging results in premature mortality estimates from exposure to particulate air pollution to increase by 7% compared to 2015, highlighting the challenge facing efforts to improve public health in India.

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“…Duncan et al (2015) that may have slowed in recent years (Hilboll et al 2017). Previous health impact assessments in India have used satellite observations to infer surface concentrations and health impacts of PM 2.5 at the district level (Chowdhury and Dey 2016). Advanced chemical transport models are increasingly used to focus on pollution across India regionally, from evaluating and developing NO x emissions inventories (Ghude et al 2013 to testing modeled O 3 sensitivities in the region , Sharma et al 2016, in addition to estimating premature mortality due to air pollution (Ghude et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM _2.5 and O ₃ in northern India

Karambelas

Holloway

Kinney

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Ambient air pollution in India contributes to negative health impacts and early death. Ground-based monitors often used to quantify health impacts are located in urban regions, yet approximately 70% of India's population lives in rural communities. We simulate high-resolution concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM) and ozone from the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality model over northern India, including updated estimates of anthropogenic emissions for transportation, residential combustion and location-based industrial and electrical generating emissions in a new anthropogenic emissions inventory. These simulations inform seasonal air quality and health impacts due to anthropogenic emissions, contrasting urban versus rural regions. For our northern India domain, we estimate 463 200 (95% confidence interval: 444 600-482 600) adults die prematurely each year from PM 2.5 and that 37 800 (28 500-48 100) adults die prematurely each year from O 3 . This translates to 5.8 deaths per 10 000 attributable to air pollution out of an annual rate of 72 deaths per 10 000 (8.1% of deaths) using 2010 estimates. We estimate that the majority of premature deaths resulting from PM 2.5 and O 3 are in rural (383 600) as opposed to urban (117 200) regions, where we define urban as cities and towns with populations of at least 100 000 people. These findings indicate the need for rural monitoring and appropriate health studies to understand and mitigate the effects of ambient air pollution on this population in addition to supporting model evaluation.

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Cause-specific premature death from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India: Estimate adjusted for baseline mortality

Cited by 193 publications

References 14 publications

Population exposure to hazardous air quality due to the 2015 fires in Equatorial Asia

Population exposure to hazardous air quality due to the 2015 fires in Equatorial Asia

Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India

Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM _2.5 and O ₃ in northern India

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Cause-specific premature death from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India: Estimate adjusted for baseline mortality

Cited by 193 publications

References 14 publications

Population exposure to hazardous air quality due to the 2015 fires in Equatorial Asia

Population exposure to hazardous air quality due to the 2015 fires in Equatorial Asia

Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India

Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM 2.5 and O 3 in northern India

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Product

Resources

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Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM _2.5 and O ₃ in northern India