Cascading regime shifts within and across scales

Rocha, Juan; Peterson, Garry D.; Bodin, Örjan; Levin, Simon A.

doi:10.1126/science.aat7850

Cited by 242 publications

(158 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…Tipping elements are systems in which a small perturbation can lead to a qualitative change in the system in case a critical value (tipping point) is surpassed. Tipping elements have been identified in the Earth's climate system 5 , but also in various other contexts like finance, politics, ecology or climate [6][7][8][9] . In the Earth system, tipping elements can interact across scales in time and space [9][10][11] which could in principle lead to feedbacks, domino effects 12 and ultimately to a hothouse state 13 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking micro- to macro-scales

Wunderling

Stumpf

Krönke

et al. 2020

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science

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How motifs condition critical thresholds: Linking Micro-to Macro-scales In this study, we investigate how specific micro interaction structures (motifs) affect the occurrence of tipping cascades on networks of stylized tipping elements. We compare the properties of cascades in Erdős-Rényi networks and an exemplary moisture recycling network of the Amazon rainforest. Within these networks, decisive small-scale motifs are the feed forward loop, the secondary feed forward loop, the zero loop and the neighboring loop.Of all motifs, the feed forward loop motif stands out in tipping cascades since it decreases the critical coupling strength necessary to initiate a cascade more than the other motifs.We find that for this motif, the reduction of critical coupling strength is 11% less than the critical coupling of a pair of tipping elements. For highly connected networks, our analysis reveals that coupled feed forward loops coincide with a strong 90% decrease of the critical coupling strength.For the highly clustered moisture recycling network in the Amazon, we observe regions of very high motif occurrence for each of the four investigated motifs suggesting that these regions are more vulnerable. The occurrence of motifs is found to be one order of magnitude higher than in a random Erdős-Rényi network.This emphasizes the importance of local interaction structures for the emergence of global cascades and the stability of the network as a whole. a) These authors equally contributed to this study. Correspondences should be addressed to: nico.wunderling@pikpotsdam.de 2 How motifs condition critical thresholds: Linking Micro-to Macro-scales Tipping elements are nonlinear systems, where a small perturbation can be sufficient to induce a qualitative change of the whole system as soon as a critical threshold (tipping point) is crossed. Coupled tipping elements exist for instance in connected lake systems, in the Earth's climate system or in social systems. Here, we investigate networks of interacting tipping elements, where each node consists of a stylized tipping element and explore important interaction structures on the micro scale of the network, the so-called motifs. Such motifs in complex networks have been found in multiple systems such as cell metabolism, food webs or neural networks and are known to be significantly overexpressed in real-world compared to random networks. However, motifs have not yet been studied extensively in complex networks, where nodes have their own dynamics. In our study, we find that tipping cascades occur more often at locations with high motif frequency revealing locations (nodes) of decreased robustness.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking micro- to macro-scales

Wunderling

Stumpf

Krönke

et al. 2020

Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science

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“…For example, the opportunistic pathogen Clostridium difficile can take over the gut microbiome of susceptible hosts, leading to an unhealthy, highly persistent community state [23]. Moreover, microbial ecosystems often undergo transitions between these alternative stable states [24], [25] in response to environmental disturbance, analogous to regime shifts observed in macro-ecosystems under stress [26]- [28]. 40 Beyond sustained external stress, short-term perturbations such as exposure to antibiotics [29] or osmotic shocks [30] can also drive lasting changes in microbial communities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transient invaders can induce shifts between alternative stable states of microbial communities

Amor

Ratzke

Gore

2019

Preprint

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Microbial dispersal often leads to the arrival of outsider organisms into ecosystems. When their arrival give rise to successful invasions, outsider species establish within the resident 10 community, which can dramatically alter the ecosystem. Seemingly less influential, the potential impact of unsuccessful invaders that interact only transiently with the community has remained largely ignored. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that such transient invasions can perturb the stability of microbial ecosystems and induce a lasting transition to an alternative stable state, even when the invader species itself does not survive the transition. First, we develop a 15 mechanistic understanding of how environmental changes caused by such transient invaders can drive a community shift in a simple, bistable model system. Beyond this, we show that transient invaders can also induce switches between stable states in more complex communities isolated from natural soil samples. Our results demonstrate that short-term interactions with an invader species can induce lasting shifts in community composition and function. 20 One Sentence Summary: Transient invaders can cause lasting shifts in community composition and function.

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“…Typically depicted as causal diagrams, archetypes represent recurrent feedback structures reduced to 4 problem archetypes and their solutions [48][49][50]. These building blocks have inspired the identification of resilience surrogates in SES [51], shared causes [52] and potential interactions of regime shifts in SES [53], as well as archetypical configurations of land systems' change [54].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping social-ecological systems archetypes

Rocha

Malmborg

Gordon

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Achieving sustainable development goals requires targeting and monitoring sustainable solutions tailored to different social and ecological contexts. A social-ecological systems (SESs) framework was developed to help diagnose problems, identify complex interactions, and solutions tailored to each SES. Here we develop a data-driven method for upscaling the SES framework and apply it to a context where data is scarce, but also where solutions towards sustainable development are needed. The purpose of upscaling the framework is to create a tool that facilitates decision-making in data-scarce contexts. We mapped SES by applying the framework to poverty alleviation and food security issues in the Volta River basin in Ghana and Burkina Faso. We found archetypical configurations of SES in space, and discuss where agricultural innovations such as water reservoirs might have a stronger impact at increasing food availability and therefore alleviating poverty and hunger. We conclude by outlining how the method can be used in other SES comparative studies.

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Cascading regime shifts within and across scales

Cited by 242 publications

References 78 publications

How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking micro- to macro-scales

How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking micro- to macro-scales

Transient invaders can induce shifts between alternative stable states of microbial communities

Mapping social-ecological systems archetypes

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