Can CCS and NET enable the continued use of fossil carbon fuels after CoP21?

Abstract

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) does not generate energy. CCS applied to fossil and modern bio-carbon fuels and feedstocks removes environmentally damaging CO2 emissions. CoP21 stipulated a maximum 2°C-1.5°C global warming from 2050 in perpetuity. Both CCS and negative emission technology (NET) are now required to manage the carbon stock in earth's atmosphere and oceans. All components of CCS are operationally proven secure at the industrial scale. Fifteen CCS projects operate globally; seven are under construction. CCS systems increase electricity prices, to about £100/MWhr. CCS on industry is cheaper and storage costs minimal (£5-20/tonne). CCS reduces whole economy costs of carbon transition by 2.5 times. Policies of capex subsidy, oversupplied emissions certificates, weak carbon pricing, and weak emissions standards have all failed to develop large cost CCS mega-projects. New carbon certificates could link the extraction of carbon to an obligation to store a percentage of emissions. Certificates connect CCS and NET pathways to secure carbon storage for the public good.

A Mechanism for CCS in the Post-Paris Era

“…A similar concept was proposed by the U.K. Parliamentary Advisory Group (PAG) on CCS (PAG 2016) and Haszeldine (2016), albeit focused on certificates of storage implemented at a national (U.K.) or regional (European) level. The European Commission (2013) also briefly considered policy options for what it termed CCS certificates, based on placing an obligation to acquire and surrender such certificates either on EU-based power generators, in a similar way as applied in a renewables obligation scheme, or on fuel suppliers based on embedded carbon, i.e., the fossil carbon content of products supplied, as per Allen et al, the PAG and Haszeldine.…”

“…Thereafter, anthropogenic emissions and removals will have to remain in balance in perpetuity, or at net-zero, to avoid further dangerous interference with the climate system. This means either phasing-out fossil fuels or using CCS or CO 2 removal (CDR) technologies and other sink enhancements to maintain a steadystate climate (Haszeldine 2016). It is fair to say, therefore, that CCS is an important tool for the 21 st century's energy transition, as foreseen in the Paris Agreement.…”

UK grid electricity carbon intensity can be reduced by enhanced oil recovery with CO2 sequestration

“…Total UK electricity generation (including pumped storage) fell by 5.6% from 359 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2013 to 339 in 2015; gas-fired generation increased from 96 TWh in 2013 to 100 TWh in 2015, representing 30% of total supply [1,2]. Coal-fired generation fell from 131 TWh in 2013 to 76 TWh in 2015, and is projected to continue to decline rapidly through the next decade [3][4] due to Electricity Market Reform [5] and The Industrial Emissions Directive [6]. However, according to government projections published in 2017, the UK is projected to need 96 gigawatts (GW) of new peak electricity generation capacity by 2035 to replace coal-fired generation, support renewables intermittency, and meet decarbonization goals.…”

“…fugitive CH 4 emissions from coal and gas extraction). Despite cuts in coal-fired capacity [5,6] and increased renewable capacity, BEIS indicates a gap in meeting Carbon Budgets 4 and 5, of 146 and 247 Mt CO 2 e, respectively [4]. The projections include a 27% increase in interconnection capacity by 2035, which delivers electricity that does not affect the UK carbon targets, and is ostensibly zero carbon for the UK.…”

“…Welkenhuysen et al [4] probabilistically allocated Monte Carlo cycles to oil production uncertainty and selling price uncertainty and found that enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the North Sea has positive net present value with an oil price above €50 bbl ¡1 . In the absence of a direct CCS subsidy or a high carbon price, EOR coupled with CCS has the potential to bridge this gap in costs between unabated gas and CCS [4,5].…”