Can agent-based models assist decisions on large-scale practical problems? A philosophical analysis

Abstract

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Transparent to whom? No algorithmic accountability without a critical audience

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Transparent to whom? No algorithmic accountability without a critical audience

“……”

Optimal fish densities and farm locations in Norwegian fjords: a framework to use a PSO algorithm to optimize an agent-based model to simulate fish disease dynamics

“…The validation procedure is related to the use of the model. Gross and Strand (2000) has listed these approaches to validate ABMs of complex systems:…”

Verifying and Validating Simulations

“…Retrodiction compares the states of the model with past observations of the target system. Lastly, structural similarity refers to assessing the realism of the structure of the model in terms of empirical and/or theoretical knowledge of the target system (see also Gross and Strand 2000). In practice, all three approaches are interdependent and no single approach is used alone.…”

“…Validation through prediction requires matching the model with aspects of the target system before they were observed. The logic of predictive validity is the following: if one is using a predictive model-in which the purpose of the model is to predict future states of the target system-and the predictions prove satisfactory in repeated tested events, it may be reasonable to expect the model outcomes to stay reliable under similar conditions (Gross and Strand 2000). The purpose of prediction is somewhat problematic in social simulation:…”

“…Most involve human beings and are too valuable to allow repeated intervention, which hinders the acquisition of knowledge about its future behaviour. Policies based on false predictions could have serious consequences, thus making the purpose of prediction unusable (Gross and Strand 2000).…”

Transparent to whom? No algorithmic accountability without a critical audience

“……”

Optimal fish densities and farm locations in Norwegian fjords: a framework to use a PSO algorithm to optimize an agent-based model to simulate fish disease dynamics

“…The validation procedure is related to the use of the model. Gross and Strand (2000) has listed these approaches to validate ABMs of complex systems:…”

Verifying and Validating Simulations

“…Retrodiction compares the states of the model with past observations of the target system. Lastly, structural similarity refers to assessing the realism of the structure of the model in terms of empirical and/or theoretical knowledge of the target system (see also Gross and Strand 2000). In practice, all three approaches are interdependent and no single approach is used alone.…”

“…Validation through prediction requires matching the model with aspects of the target system before they were observed. The logic of predictive validity is the following: if one is using a predictive model-in which the purpose of the model is to predict future states of the target system-and the predictions prove satisfactory in repeated tested events, it may be reasonable to expect the model outcomes to stay reliable under similar conditions (Gross and Strand 2000). The purpose of prediction is somewhat problematic in social simulation:…”

“…Most involve human beings and are too valuable to allow repeated intervention, which hinders the acquisition of knowledge about its future behaviour. Policies based on false predictions could have serious consequences, thus making the purpose of prediction unusable (Gross and Strand 2000).…”

Transparent to whom? No algorithmic accountability without a critical audience

“……”

Optimal fish densities and farm locations in Norwegian fjords: a framework to use a PSO algorithm to optimize an agent-based model to simulate fish disease dynamics

“…The validation procedure is related to the use of the model. Gross and Strand (2000) has listed these approaches to validate ABMs of complex systems:…”

Verifying and Validating Simulations

“…Retrodiction compares the states of the model with past observations of the target system. Lastly, structural similarity refers to assessing the realism of the structure of the model in terms of empirical and/or theoretical knowledge of the target system (see also Gross and Strand 2000). In practice, all three approaches are interdependent and no single approach is used alone.…”

“…Validation through prediction requires matching the model with aspects of the target system before they were observed. The logic of predictive validity is the following: if one is using a predictive model-in which the purpose of the model is to predict future states of the target system-and the predictions prove satisfactory in repeated tested events, it may be reasonable to expect the model outcomes to stay reliable under similar conditions (Gross and Strand 2000). The purpose of prediction is somewhat problematic in social simulation:…”

“…Most involve human beings and are too valuable to allow repeated intervention, which hinders the acquisition of knowledge about its future behaviour. Policies based on false predictions could have serious consequences, thus making the purpose of prediction unusable (Gross and Strand 2000).…”