Black Votes Count: The 2014 Republican Senate Nomination in Mississippi*

Abstract

Objective This article examines the role of black votes in contributing to the renomination of 36‐year Republican Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi. In 2014, Senator Cochran faced a formidable primary challenge from State Senator Chris McDaniel, a notably more conservative politician. After narrowly losing the primary, Cochran prevailed in the runoff because enough black voters decided to support him. Methods We use precinct‐level racial data to derive ecological inference estimates of turnout and then employ a racially homogenous precinct analysis to determine the percentage of the black and white vote won by Cochran and McDaniel. Results Our empirical analysis provides convincing evidence that if not for the increase in black voters in the runoff and their overwhelming support for Senator Cochran, his opponent would have ended his lengthy political career. Conclusions Race has always been the centerpiece of politics in the Deep South state of Mississippi. This is an empirical account of an unlikely electoral event that speaks to the importance of the changing state of southern politics and how a marginalized minority population can still play a pivotal role in a region dominated by a white Republican majority.

Can Republican African Americans Win African American Votes? A Field Experiment

“… 4. In a Republican senate primary between two White candidates in Mississippi, Hood and McKee (2017) find a distinct tendency for African Americans to support the conservative candidate over his ultra-conservative opponent, suggesting the capacity for sophisticated ideological voting that transcends both race and party. …”