Biofuels for Maritime Transportation: A Spatial, Techno-Economic, and Logistic Analysis in Brazil, Europe, South Africa, and the USA

Abstract

Low or zero carbon fuels are crucial for maritime transportation decarbonization goals. This paper assesses potential localities for maritime biofuels (biobunkers) production in Brazil, Europe, South Africa, and United States considering geographical, logistic, and economic aspects. This assessment combines georeferenced and techno-economic analyses to identify suitable fuel production hotspots based on not only plant performance and costs but also on logistic integration and biomass seasonality. Five technology pathways were considered: Straight vegetable Oils (SVO), Hydrotreated Vegetable Oils (HVO), Fischer–Tropsch Biomass-to-liquids (FT-BTL), Alcohol oligomerization to middle distillates (ATD), and Hydrotreated Pyrolysis Oil (HDPO). Findings reveal that biomass concentration in Brazil makes it the region with highest biobunker potential, which are mostly close to coastal areas and surpasses regional demand. Although other regions registered more limited potentials, hotspots proximity to ports would enable fossil fuel replacements in these areas. For all cases, biobunker costs (USD 21–104/GJ) are higher than conventional marine fuels prices (USD 11–17/GJ). Only 15% of the hotspots’ carbon prices that would allow its competitiveness are lower than USD 100/tCO2. Alternatives to incentivize biobunker production would be, first, to establish mandatory fuel blends and second, to join forces with other sectors that would be benefited from the co-production of advanced biofuels.

Are there synergies in the decarbonization of aviation and shipping? An integrated perspective for the case of Brazil

“…Finally, in the deep decarbonization scenario (Brazil compatible with a world well below 2°C), the need for CCS engendered a significant synergy between shipping and road transport (and, on a much smaller scale, between aviation and shipping). In short, for all cases, the total annual potential exceeds by far the current demand of both sectors ( Carvalho et al., 2021b ).…”

“…(2018) IAMC (2020) de Oliveira et al. (2021) ( Müller-Casseres et al, 2021a ) Other Fischer-Tropsch BtL plant costs Historical aviation demand Historical marine fuel demand Historical foreign trade International trade scenarios ( Carvalho et al, 2021b ) ANAC (2021) EPE ( 2019b) ( MDIC, 2020 ) IMO (2015) and DNV GL (2018) …”

“…The techno-economic potential of SVO, HVO and FT-liquids is based on the values found by ( Carvalho et al, 2021b ).…”

“…This is partly due to cost assumptions for these technologies (e.g., the standard plant capacity in the model is 1.6 ML/day, with considerable gains of scale). Small BtL scenarios seek to reflect a future energy system in which the development of BtL technologies is slower, relying mostly on small pioneer plants, with higher costs ( de Jong et al., 2015 ; Carvalho et al., 2021b ). As such, in these scenarios, the standard plant capacity is 0.13 ML/day.…”

Low-Emission Alternative Energy for Transport in the EU: State of Play of Research and Innovation

“…In the maritime sector, Carvalho et al [38] suggested establishing mandatory fuel blends and joining forces with other sectors that would be benefited from the co-production of advanced biofuels.…”