Biased beliefs and retrospective voting: why democracies choose mediocre policies

Voter Behavior and Government Performance in Malawi: An Application of a Probabilistic Voting Model

“…The latter conclusion results from the fact that voters' policy preferences might be biased. For instance, Beilhartz and Gersbach (2004), Bischoff andSiemers (2011) andCaplan (2007) emphasize the role of biased voter beliefs about policy impacts as a main determinant of inefficient policy choices. Voter beliefs are defined as agents' simplified mental models to approximate the complex true relation between policy instruments and induced policy outcomes.…”

Policy Support Through Modeling and Evaluation: Methodological Challenges and Practical Solutions

“…Based on their policy beliefs, political actors derive their individual preferences with respect to policies. Similarly, some authors have recently highlighted the role of biased voter beliefs as a main determinant of inefficient policy choices (Beilhartz and Gersbach 2004;Bischoff and Siemers 2011;Caplan 2007). In particular, the work by Caplan (2007) has been highly recognized in public choice literature, as he has collected an impressive amount of evidence showing persistently biased voter beliefs.…”

Modeling and Evaluation of Political Processes: A New Quantitative Approach

“…For example, Beilhartz and Gersbach (2004), Bischoff and Siemers (2011) and Caplan (2007) emphasize the role of biased voter beliefs about policy impacts as a main determinant of inefficient policy choices. Voter beliefs are defined as agents' simplified mental models to approximate the complex true relation between policy instruments and induced policy outcomes.…”