Bayesian approach and extreme value theory in economic analysis of forestry projects

Salles, Thiago Taglialegna; Nogueira, Denismar Alves; Beijo, Luiz Alberto; Silva, Liniker Fernandes da

doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2019.05.021

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…Another important aspect of the papers was a sensitivity analysis, conducted in many of the articles as an analysis of scenarios involving a change in the parameters of the price of biomass or crop yield in the range of ±5, 10, and 15%, [49,72,95,101,102,119]; another method employed for specific purposes was Monte Carlo analysis [56,[120][121][122]. The economic evaluation of perennial crop production was treated as an investment, so economic indicators were used to assess its profitability.…”

Section: Analysis Of Methods For Economic Evaluation Of Perennial Crop Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The search for crops that would meet the criteria of sustainable development and make good raw material for bioenergy and bioeconomy has been the subject of numerous papers [34][35][36], many of which determined specific conditions for their cultivation [37], harvest [38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47], and factors affecting the crop per area unit [48] and the impact of cultivation on greenhouse gases (CHG) [49,50] and on the environment [51][52][53]. Mathematical methods were used by Bender et al [54], Hauk et al [55], Salles et al [56], and Sleight et al [57,58] to assess crop yields; by Havlíčková et al [59] to assess the SRC biomass price; and by Frank et al [60] to assess both the minimum selling price and net present value (NPV). One of the main factors affecting the selection of perennial crops for commercial use for energy or bioproduction purposes, apart from the volume of yields, was the economic profitability of production, which has always had a decisive influence on the farmer's decision to engage or not to engage in the cultivation of this kind of crop.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic Evaluation of the Production of Perennial Crops for Energy Purposes—A Review

2021

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Biomass is widely used for the production of renewable energy, which calls for an economic evaluation of its generation. The aim of the present work was to review the literature concerning the economic evaluation of the production of perennial crop biomass for energy use. Statistical analysis of the bibliographic data was carried out, as well as an assessment of methods and values of economic indicators of the production of perennial crops for bioenergy. Most of the papers selected for the review were published in the years 2015–2019, which was probably stimulated by the growing interest in sustainable development, particularly after 2015, when the United Nations declared 17 sustainable development goals. The earliest articles concerned the economic analysis of plantations of short rotation coppice; the subsequent ones included the analysis of feedstock production in terms of the net present value and policy. The latest references also investigated transport and sustainability issues. The crops most commonly selected for production cost analysis were willow, poplar, and Miscanthus. The cost of production of willow and poplar were similar, 503 EUR ha−1 year−1 and 557 EUR ha−1 year−1, respectively, while the cost of Miscanthus production was significantly higher, 909 EUR ha−1 year−1 on average. By analogy, the distribution of revenue was similar for willow and poplar, at 236 EUR ha−1 year−1 and 181 EUR ha−1 year−1; Miscanthus production reached the value of 404 EUR ha−1 year−1. The economic conditions of perennial crop production differed in terms of geography; four areas were identified: Canada, the USA, southern Europe, and central and northern Europe.

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Section: Analysis Of Methods For Economic Evaluation Of Perennial Crop Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Evaluation of the Production of Perennial Crops for Energy Purposes—A Review

2021

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“…Para tal, futuros trabalhos sobre o assunto devem ser elaborados, dando continuidade aos estudos de Bako, Adam e Fitrianto (2018), Nakajima et al (2012) e Ananias et al (2021). A tendência pode ser incorporada por métodos de regressão, como feito por Lucca Filho et al ( 2022), e também por procedimentos bayesianos que têm apresentado bons resultados, conforme relatado por Aguirre, Nogueira e Beijo (2020) e Salles et al (2019). Em conclusão, é possível relacionar os diferentes poluentes atmosféricos à outras variáveis de potencial interesse, como o espaço geográfico e o tempo, por meio de métodos multivariados de extremos e espaço-temporais, como preconizado por Gouldby et al (2017) e Coles (2001).…”

Section: Mêsunclassified

Centro de Ciências Agrárias da UFSCar

2023

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Carlos (UFSCar) têm uma história muito mais antiga dos que os 30 anos comemorados em 2021. Dos cafezais do século XIX sobraram as construções, em especial a senzala, que nos faz pensar sobre um período que deixou marcas profundas em nossa sociedade e que estão presentes até hoje. A cana-de-açúcar substituiu gradativamente o café e nos anos 1950 foi implementado o Instituto do Açúcar e do Álcool (IAA), instituição federal que foi protagonista no melhoramento da cana-de-açúcar, atividade até hoje extremamente relevante no CCA. No início dos anos 1990, mudanças nas políticas públicas federais decretaram a extinção do IAA, que foi incorporado à UFSCar. Surgiram o campus Araras e o CCA. E nada mais natural que suas atividades fossem iniciadas com o curso de graduação em Engenharia Agronômica. Sua expansão acadêmica começou nos anos 2000 e se consolidou nos anos 2010 com os cursos do Programa de Apoio a Planos de Reestruturação e Expansão das Universidades Federais (Reuni). Hoje somos cinco departamentos acadêmicos, seis cursos de graduação e quatro de pós-graduação; pesquisas em diferentes áreas do conhecimento e com forte vocação em extensão. Somos plurais. Para celebrar os nossos 30 anos, convidamos vocês à leitura das próximas páginas, que contam um pouco sobre a nossa rica memória histórica, marcada pela recente pandemia de Covid-19 e pelo distanciamento social. Que a história nos fortaleça ainda mais!

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“…Bayesian statistics allows the comparison of best case and worse case scenarios using the credible intervals, in terms of volume, which can then be used in the calculation of net present value. The modeled probability levels, combined with the Bayesian visualizations, allow easier interpretation of worst and best case scenarios (Salles et al 2019). Timber volumes were calculated in cubic meters.…”

Section: Future Tree and Stand Volume Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards effective reforestation: growth and commercial value of four commonly planted tropical timber species on infertile soils in Panama

et al. 2022

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Finding suitable tree species that not only grow well on nutrient poor soils but are also safe financial investments is one of the major obstacles to successful reforestation efforts in the tropics. Our study compared the financial viability and growth of valuable timber species in monocultures and mixtures on infertile soils. Our work shows the extraordinary growth in volume and value of Dalbergia retusa and Terminalia amazonia while underscoring the poor financial viability of Tectona grandis and Pachira quinata, all commonly planted timber species in Panama and much of Central and South America. Using Bayesian statistics, our predictions show that T. amazonia monocultures could reach nearly 200 m3 ha−1 of merchantable volume after 30 years compared to the ~ 40 m3 ha−1 that T. grandis could accumulate in the same time frame. While D. retusa monocultures did not have the highest predicted merchantable volumes of all the species, it did have the highest predicted net present value (NPV), with a predicted mean NPV of > US$97,000 ha−1, quadrupling the species with the next highest monoculture’s NPV, T. amazonia monocultures (~ US$20,000 ha−1). Our work emphasizes that reforestation can be financially viable on low nutrient soils, even in the absence of fertilization or other silvicultural manipulations, if species selection and site are carefully considered and matched.

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Bayesian approach and extreme value theory in economic analysis of forestry projects

Cited by 8 publications

References 68 publications

Economic Evaluation of the Production of Perennial Crops for Energy Purposes—A Review

Economic Evaluation of the Production of Perennial Crops for Energy Purposes—A Review

Centro de Ciências Agrárias da UFSCar

Towards effective reforestation: growth and commercial value of four commonly planted tropical timber species on infertile soils in Panama

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