Assessment of Severe Accident Risks

Hirschberg, Stefan; Burgherr, Peter; Spiekerman, Gerard; Cazzoli, E.G.; Vitazek, Jirina; Cheng, Lulian

doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0153-3_10

Cited by 16 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…In some cases, power plant accidents are catastrophic affecting residents near the power plants. This perspective on severe accidents may lead to different system rankings, depending on the individual risk aversion [70]. Apparently, safety measures add more costs to the system for preventive measures but at the same time they save much of the costs resulting from accidents due to corrective measures.…”

Section: Safety Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Future electricity planning necessitates a thorough multi-faceted analysis of the available technologies in order to secure the energy supply for coming generations. To cope with worldwide concerns over sustainable development and meet the growing demands of electricity we assess the future potential technologies in Egypt through covering their technical, economic, environmental and social aspects. In this study we fill the gap of a lacking sustainability assessment of energy systems in Egypt where most of the studies focus mainly on the economic and technical aspects of planning future installation of power plants in Egypt. Furthermore, we include the stakeholder preferences of the indicators in the energy sector into our assessment. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity analysis through single dimension assessment scenarios of the technologies as well as a sustainable scenario with equal preferences of all dimensions of the sustainability. We employ two multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methodologies: the analytical hierarchy process for weighing the assessment criteria, and the weighted sum method for generating a general integrated sustainability index for each technology. The study investigates seven technologies: coal, natural gas, wind, concentrated solar power, photovoltaics, biomass and nuclear. The results reveal a perfect matching between the ranking of the technologies by the stakeholders and the sustainable scenario showing the highest ranking for natural gas and the lowest for nuclear and coal. There is a strong potential for renewable energy technologies to invade the electricity market in Egypt where they achieve the second ranking after natural gas. The Monte-Carlo approach gives photovoltaics a higher ranking over concentrated solar power as compared to the sample data ranking. The study concludes the importance of a multi-dimensional evaluation of the technologies while considering the preferences of the stakeholders in order to achieve a reliable and sustainable future energy supply.

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Section: Safety Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

et al. 2018

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“…The time constraint was necessary to avoid potential bias that may be introduced by delays in reporting of more recent accidents. Finally, although being a part of the data exploration process, dam accidents in China were not included in the analysis of the accident frequency and severity due to potential underreporting as discussed by Hirschberg et al (2003), and also elaborated in Kalinina et al (2018a). Therefore, later in the text non-OECD countries are referred to as non-OECD without China countries.…”

Section: Xhmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, although being a part of the data exploration process, dam accidents in China were not included in the analysis of the accident frequency and severity due to potential underreporting as discussed by Hirschberg et al. (2003), and also elaborated in Kalinina et al. (2018a).…”

Section: Dam Accidentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Generally, a better understanding of the potential risks can be achieved by analyzing historical observations of dam accidents and estimating the frequency of these accidents and severity of their consequences (Hirschberg et al., 2003; Hirschberg, Spiekerman, & Dones, 1998). Previous comparative studies on dam accidents primarily used basic statistical methods, for example, ordinary least squares model (Baecher, Paté, & De Neufville, 1980; DEFRA, 2002), whereas analyses for other energy chains also applied advanced statistical methods, for example, standard Bayesian approach (Congdon, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The comparative evaluation of historical dam accidents has mainly focused on distinguishing among different dam types (ICOLD, 1995; Jandora & Riha, 2009; McCully, 2001). In contrast, application of information about dam purpose or other characteristics has been rather rare (e.g., Hirschberg et al., 1998; Hirschberg et al., 2003). Finally, previous studies that focused on accidents at dams either looked at accidents worldwide or addressed particular geographic and development regions (e.g., Western world [Hirschberg et al., 1998]); but they did not evaluate comparatively frequencies of dam accidents among different country clusters to reflect potential differences in risk culture or regulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non‐OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

2020

Self Cite

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This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911-2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non-OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency-consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non-OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single-purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision-making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.

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Comparative Risk Assessment for Energy Systems: A Tool for Comprehensive Assessment of Energy Security

Burgherr

Hirschberg

2008

Wiley Handbook of Science and Technology for Homeland Security

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Accidents in the energy sector have been identified as one of the dominant contributors to man‐made disasters. Additionally, intentional attacks that are the result of a purposed malicious action such as vandalism, sabotage, terrorism, or war have become a major focus in the past few years. Severe accident risks of different energy chains (fossil, hydro, and nuclear) were analyzed based on the highly comprehensive energy‐related severe accident database (ENSAD), which has been established at the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI). Additionally, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been utilized to address the consequences of hypothetical accidents at nuclear power plants. Comparative evaluations were performed for full energy chains because accidents can take place at every stage of an energy chain. Results are provided separately for Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries and non‐OECD countries to account for differences in technological development as well as management, regulatory frameworks, and general safety culture. Aggregated indicators and frequency–consequence ( F – N ) curves indicate that fatality rates in OECD countries are substantially lower compared to non‐OECD countries. Upstream stages of fossil chains and hydropower in non‐OECD countries are most accident‐prone, whereas energy‐related accident risks are lowest for western hydropower and nuclear power plants, although their maximum consequences can be very large. Finally, intentional attacks on oil and gas installations provide a real threat, resulting in potential health and environmental effects, economic loss, social impacts, and reduction of supply. In conclusion, the inclusive protection of critical infrastructures requires a holistic, multilevel approach within the context of Homeland Security.

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Assessment of Severe Accident Risks

Cited by 16 publications

References 3 publications

Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non‐OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

Comparative Risk Assessment for Energy Systems: A Tool for Comprehensive Assessment of Energy Security

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