Assessment of climate change impacts on soil water balance and aquifer recharge in a semiarid region in south east Spain

Abstract

Please cite this article as: Touhami, I., Chirino, E., Andreu, J.M., Sánchez, J.R., Moutahir, H., Bellot, J., Assessment of climate change impacts on soil water balance and aquifer recharge in a semiarid region in south east Spain, Hydrology (2015), doi: http://dx.doi.org/10. 1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.012 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. Climate change forecasts in a semiarid region are of much interest to academics, managers 31 and governments. A significant decrease in annual precipitation and an increase in mean 32 annual air temperature are expected; consequently, changes in the soil water balance and 33 groundwater recharge to aquifers are expected as a response to climate change forecasts. In 34 this context, our study aimed to assess the impact of climate changes on the soil water balance 35 and natural groundwater recharge in a semiarid area (Ventós-Castellar aquifer, SE, Spain). To 36 this end, we selected Global Climate Model HadCM3 after comparing it with two other 37 models (ECHAM4 and CGCM2). The HadCM3 model climate data (air temperature and 38 precipitation in two emission scenarios: A2-high and B2-low; 2011-2099) were coupled to a 39 HYDROBAL hydrological model to determine the soil water balance. The HYDROBAL 40 model results showed that climate change will have a significant impact on the soil water 41 balance in the study area, especially on groundwater recharge during the latter period. In both 42 the A2-high and B2-low scenarios, the selected years to run the HYDROBAL model showed 43 a decrease in water balance components (Precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, aquifer 44 recharge and runoff) in relation to the baseline period . Over the projected period 45 (2011-2099), we expect fewer rainfall events (>15 mm), which promote aquifer recharge, 46 longer dry summer seasons and, consequently, reduced average annual recharge that ranged 47 from 3-17%; 10-49 mm, if compared to the baseline period. The methodology developed in 48 the present study can be beneficial for assessing the impact of predicted climate change on 49 groundwater recharge, and can help managers and planners to devise strategies for the 50 efficient use and conservation of freshwater resources. 51 52 Journal of

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