Assessing the vulnerability of European butterflies to climate change using multiple criteria

Heikkinen, Risto K.; Luoto, Miska; Leikola, Niko; Pöyry, Juha; Settele, Josef; Kudrna, Otakar; Marmion, Mathieu; Fronzek, Stefan; Thuiller, Wilfried

doi:10.1007/s10531-009-9728-x

Cited by 73 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…Our approach allowed us to identify characteristics of U.K. butterfly species that best predicted their degree of phenological advancement. Further investigation of the mechanisms by which these characteristics influence phenology may aid in understanding vulnerability to climate change (Heikkinen et al 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species' traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies

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et al. 2011

Ecology

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Abstract. How do species' traits help identify which species will respond most strongly to future climate change? We examine the relationship between species' traits and phenology in a well-established model system for climate change, the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS). Most resident U.K. butterfly species have significantly advanced their dates of first appearance during the past 30 years. We show that species with narrower larval diet breadth and more advanced overwintering stages have experienced relatively greater advances in their date of first appearance. In addition, species with smaller range sizes have experienced greater phenological advancement. Our results demonstrate that species' traits can be important predictors of responses to climate change, and they suggest that further investigation of the mechanisms by which these traits influence phenology may aid in understanding species' responses to current and future climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species' traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies

Diamond

Frame

Martin

et al. 2011

Ecology

187

228

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“…comm.). Four projects have used expert knowledge to obtain mobility estimates for European butterflies (Bink 1992 as cited in Stevens et al 2010;Cowley et al 2001;Komonen et al 2004;Heikkinen et al 2010), each differing somewhat in their methodology but producing consistent results (consistency between the first three studies is analyzed in Stevens et al 2010b). Our study differs from these European studies in target taxa (North American as opposed to European butterflies), our larger scale (more respondents, more species, and greater spatial extent), and our development and use of methods to address data accuracy issues that may arise with knowledge-based data (see below).…”

Section: Labmentioning

confidence: 99%

A mobility index for Canadian butterfly species based on naturalists’ knowledge

2011

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Mobility is a key component of species' biology. Research on mobility is inherently difficult, however, resulting in studies of narrow taxonomic, spatial, and temporal scope with results that are difficult to compare between studies. We had three goals for our research: (1) construct a data set of mobility estimates for the butterfly species of Canada based on naturalists' knowledge; (2) develop methods to evaluate aspects of accuracy and precision for knowledge-based ecological research such as ours; and (3) using our data set, test mobility-related hypotheses of species-level relationships. We distributed a questionnaire to amateur and professional lepidopterists in Canada and northern USA, asking them to estimate the mobility of Canadian butterfly species based on their field experience. Based on responses from 51 lepidopterists with approximately 800 years of combined field experience, we received mobility estimates for almost all (291 out of 307) of Canada's butterfly taxa. Mobility estimates were consistent among respondents and were not affected by respondent expertise. Mobility carries a strong phylogenetic signal and is positively related to wingspan (albeit weakly), range size, and host plant breadth, and negatively related to conservation risk. Reliance upon naturalists' experience was essential to the feasibility of our project, and provides a promising method for many types of ecological research.

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“…Several species-specific attributes have been identified as increasing species' vulnerability to climate change, including diets, migratory strategy, main habitat types and ecological specialization [5][6][7] . Moreover, although phenotypic plasticity may enable some species to respond rapidly and effectively to climate change 8,9 , others may suffer from the induced spatial mismatch and temporal mistiming with their resources 10,11 .…”

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confidence: 99%

Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale

et al. 2012

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Climate changes have profound effects on the distribution of numerous plant and animal species 1-3 . However, whether and how different taxonomic groups are able to track climate changes at large spatial scales is still unclear. Here, we measure and compare the climatic debt accumulated by bird and butterfly communities at a European scale over two decades (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008). We quantified the yearly change in community composition in response to climate change for 9,490 bird and 2,130 butterfly communities distributed across Europe 4 . We show that changes in community composition are rapid but different between birds and butterflies and equivalent to a 37 and 114 km northward shift in bird and butterfly communities, respectively. We further found that, during the same period, the northward shift in temperature in Europe was even faster, so that the climatic debts of birds and butterflies correspond to a 212 and 135 km lag behind climate. Our results indicate both that birds and butterflies do not keep up with temperature increase and the accumulation of different climatic debts for these groups at national and continental scales.Species are not equally at risk when facing climate change. Several species-specific attributes have been identified as increasing species' vulnerability to climate change, including diets, migratory strategy, main habitat types and ecological specialization [5][6][7] . Moreover, although phenotypic plasticity may enable some species to respond rapidly and effectively to climate change 8,9 , others may suffer from the induced spatial mismatch and temporal mistiming with their resources 10,11 . For instance, species such as great tits and flycatchers have been shown to become desynchronized with their main food supply during the nesting season 12 .However, beyond individual species' fates, climate change should also affect species interactions and the structure of species assemblages within and across different taxonomic groups over large spatial scales [13][14][15] . For instance, ectotherms should be more directly affected by climate warming and taxonomic groups with short generation time should favour faster evolutionary responses to selective pressures induced by climate changes 13 . Yet, whether different taxonomic groups are tracking climate change at the same rate over large areas is still unclear, and methods to routinely assess the mismatch between temperature increases and biodiversity responses at different spatial scales are still missing 16 .Here, we used extensive monitoring data of birds and butterflies distributed across Europe to assess whether, regardless of their species-specific characteristics, organisms belonging to a given group are responding more quickly or more slowly than organisms belonging to another group over large areas. We characterized bird and butterfly communities in 9,490 and 2,130 sample sites respectively by their community temperature index (CTI) for ea...

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Assessing the vulnerability of European butterflies to climate change using multiple criteria

Cited by 73 publications

References 78 publications

Species' traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies

Species' traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies

A mobility index for Canadian butterfly species based on naturalists’ knowledge

Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale

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