Assessing the stability of tree ranges and influence of disturbance in eastern US forests

Woodall, Christopher W.; Zhu, Kai; Westfall, James A.; Oswalt, Christopher M.; D’Amato, Anthony W.; Walters, Brian F.; Lintz, Heather E.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2012.11.047

Cited by 46 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…A modeling study from Nova Scotia suggests warming combined with harvesting could influence stand dynamics, particularly benefiting early-to mid-seral deciduous species like A. rubrum and hindering boreal trees (Steenberg et al 2013). Disturbances, however, had only a partial influence on tree range dynamics in eastern US forests when examined over a short (5-year) time period (Woodall et al 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Broad-scale assessment of tree latitudinal shifts over recent time remains difficult, however, because of insufficient data coverage (Shoo et al 2006), lack of consistency in survey methodology (Woodall et al 2008), and/ or imprecise recording of survey locations (Tingley and Beissinger 2009). To circumvent the lack of temporal data, recent studies have compared the spatial distribution of juvenile trees (e.g., seedlings or saplings) with that of mature trees of the same species (Woodall et al 2009, Zhu et al 2012, Woodall et al 2013, Zhu et al 2014) for a given time period. In these studies, juvenile trees are seen as being indicative of recent and possibly future migration trends, whereas mature trees are indicative of past conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes

2014

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Citation: Boisvert-Marsh, L., C. Périé, S. de Blois. 2014. Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes. Ecosphere 5(7):83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00111.1Abstract. Warming has been particularly strong at high latitudes in recent decades and bioclimatic models predict northern shifts in optimal conditions for most species. Climate is a strong predictor of site occupancy for trees at broad spatial scales and interacts with other drivers of forest dynamics. Recent changes in distribution and occupancy patterns should therefore provide the best evidence of a tree species' potential to shift in the direction predicted by bioclimatic models. Studies examining recent distribution changes for plants, however, have mostly done so along altitudinal gradients or have used the latitudinal position of juvenile trees relative to adult ones to infer range dynamics. This study provides rare evidence of latitudinal shifts for 11 northern tree species by assessing recent changes in distribution using globally significant inventories from 1970 to 2002. It also compares observed trends with those inferred from the position of juveniles relative to trees in a single survey. Samplings cover 6456 forest plots in temperate and boreal forests up to treeline in eastern North America. The average overall latitudinal shift was 3.07 6 4.37 km northward although responses were species-specific. Shifts were detected more for juvenile than for adult trees and significant northward ones were detected more at northern range limits than at the median. All species demonstrated increased frequency of plot occupancy for saplings while occupancy generally decreased for adult trees. Five out of the 11 species examined (Acer rubrum, Acer saccharum, Betula papyrifera, Fagus grandifolia, and Populus tremuloides) showed significant distributional shifts consistent with northward migration. Saplings of Abies balsamea, Picea glauca, and Picea mariana, on the other hand, showed southward shifting trends. Natural and human disturbances undoubtedly interact with climate to determine forest dynamics; this study shows whether their combined effect can shift distribution in the direction predicted by bioclimatic models. Only continued monitoring will reveal whether these observations are just transient dynamics or indicative of shifting range in this century. Our study provides a benchmark against which to assess future observations of latitudinal shifts for trees.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes

2014

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“…For example, the specialization of species on specific soil types or conditions (19,20) can potentially halt migrations by preventing species from moving into areas with suitable temperatures but unsuitable edaphic conditions (18,21). Likewise, forest disturbances (anthropogenic or natural) will affect the ability of species to respond to climate change (22,23). Disturbances can hinder species movements by creating unsuitable conditions and/or by creating dispersal barriers (24).…”

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confidence: 99%

Thermophilization of adult and juvenile tree communities in the northern tropical Andes

Duque

Stevenson

Feeley

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

130

121

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Climate change is expected to cause shifts in the composition of tropical montane forests towards increased relative abundances of species whose ranges were previously centered at lower, hotter elevations. To investigate this process of "thermophilization," we analyzed patterns of compositional change over the last decade using recensus data from a network of 16 adult and juvenile tree plots in the tropical forests of northern Andes Mountains and adjacent lowlands in northwestern Colombia. Analyses show evidence that tree species composition is strongly linked to temperature and that composition is changing directionally through time, potentially in response to climate change and increasing temperatures. Mean rates of thermophilization [thermal migration rate (TMR),°C·y −1 ] across all censuses were 0.011°C·y −1 (95% confidence interval = 0.002-0.022°C·y −1 ) for adult trees and 0.027°C·y −1 (95% confidence interval = 0.009-0.050°C·y −1 ) for juvenile trees. The fact that thermophilization is occurring in both the adult and juvenile trees and at rates consistent with concurrent warming supports the hypothesis that the observed compositional changes are part of a long-term process, such as global warming, and are not a response to any single episodic event. The observed changes in composition were driven primarily by patterns of tree mortality, indicating that the changes in composition are mostly via range retractions, rather than range shifts or expansions. These results all indicate that tropical forests are being strongly affected by climate change and suggest that many species will be at elevated risk for extinction as warming continues.climate change | conservation biogeography | dispersal modes | species migrations | thermal niches G lobal warming is causing poleward and upward changes in the distributions of many species (1-4). Studies from tropical forests are extremely sparse (1, 5), but the available evidence suggests that many tropical plant species are "migrating" upward (6-8). Accordingly, the composition of tropical montane forests is changing toward increased relative abundances of species whose ranges were previously centered at lower, hotter elevations (6, 8). However, this process of "thermophilization" (9) is generally occurring at velocities slower than concurrent regional temperature increases (6,8). Furthermore, in at least one tropical site (Volcan Barva, Costa Rica), the observed shifts in tree species composition were mostly a result of increased mortality of species with ranges centered at higher, cooler elevations (8), indicating that species migrations and associated compositional shifts are occurring mostly via range retractions (1). If generalizable, these findings indicate that many tropical tree species have at best a poor capacity to persist under rapidly rising temperatures, suggesting a high risk for species loss in these systems (10).One factor that determines the velocity at which plant species can move through space, and hence migrate, is seed dispersal (11-13). Although mos...

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“…Woodall et al (2009) proposed an indicator of tree-range dynamics where the attributes and location of trees greater than 1.0 or 5.0 inches (i.e., microplot and subplot trees respectively) were compared to seedling metrics across large scales using FIA data for the conterminous United States. The basic indicator that explores divergences between tree and seedling metrics has been extended to numerous studies that have expanded fundamental information for monitoring tree ranges across the United States (Bell et al 2014;Woodall et al 2013b;Zhu et al 2012Zhu et al , 2014. The additional seedling measurements improve the ability to assess tree regeneration beyond that of basic seedling abundance because all seedlings are assumed to be equal when using existing Phase 2 data.…”

Section: Tree Species Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regeneration indicator for Forest Inventory and Analysis: history, sampling, estimation, analytics, and potential use in the midwest and northeast United States

McWilliams¹,

Westfall²,

Brose³

et al. 2015

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The density and composition of regeneration drives future forest character for forests in need of replacement. Forested ecosystems face numerous regeneration stressors including invasive plants, insects and diseases, herbivory, lack of management, and climate change. As stands that make up these systems age, it is imperative to track the viability of forest reproduction. The information required for understanding the complexity of forest dynamics during the stand establishment stage has been lacking in our Nation's forest inventory. This poses a particular problem for analysts working with the major deciduous forest systems of the Midwest and Northeast United States that require detailed information on advance reproduction. To address this need, the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station (NRS) has added protocols for measuring all established tree seedlings and for assessing browse impact. This information is compiled using new NRS-FIA forest sampling and analytical methodologiesthe regeneration indicator. The regeneration indicator is described along with examples and suggestions to guide research on the difficult question of whether the region's forests are able to regenerate in the face of numerous stressors. Cover Photos

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Assessing the stability of tree ranges and influence of disturbance in eastern US forests

Cited by 46 publications

References 51 publications

Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes

Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes

Thermophilization of adult and juvenile tree communities in the northern tropical Andes

A regeneration indicator for Forest Inventory and Analysis: history, sampling, estimation, analytics, and potential use in the midwest and northeast United States

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