Assessing the impacts of 1.5  °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Abstract

Abstract. In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impacts projections. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the effects of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term effects up to 2299, compared to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impacts projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, health, and tropical cyclones).

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

“…All raw data will be available, as well as a bias-corrected ISIMIP subset using the Frieler et al (2016) methodology.…”

An introduction to the special issue on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE)

“…The CIRA project found a more than 40% reduction in US heat-related mortality. ISIMIP did not address this impact in its first round of analysis (where the focus was on malaria), although has work underway in a new round to examine it (Frieler et al 2016).…”

Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) A high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management

“…CWatM is able to use different dataset of meteorological forcing for current climate, for example, MSWEP (Beck et al, 2017), WFDEI (Weedon et al, 2014), PGMFD (Sheffield et al, 2006), GSWP3 or EWEMBI (Lange, 2018) or future climate projections from different General Circulation Models (GCMs), ) (e.g., data from ISIMIP project (Frieler et al, 2016). CWatM can use the netCDF4 repositories of original meteorological forcing without reformatting.…”

“…Water and Environment, Uganda. HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 out of the four GCMs (see Table 7) used in ISIMIP 2b (Frieler et al, 2016) as being the most feasible for eLVB as the discharge results that were run with CWatM for the historical runs of the GCMs GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CM5A-LR showed a large discrepancy from historical results. 655 Discharge is the variable which incorporates all the meteorological and hydrological processes in a basin and encompasses all the storage components in a basin (i.e., soil, groundwater, lakes and reservoirs, etc.)…”

“…CWatM follows a modeling concept similar to that of large-scale hydrological models such as H08 (Hanasaki et al, 2006;2018), WaterGAP (Alcamo et al, 2003;Flörke et al, 2013), LPJmL (Bondeau et al, 2007;Rost et al, 2008), LISFLOOD (De Roo et al, 2000;Burek et al, 2013;De Roo et al, 2000), PCR-GLOBWB (Van Beek et al, 2011;Wada et al, 2014;Sutanudjaja et al, 2018), VIC (Xu et al, 1994), MHM (Samaniego et al, 2011;Kumar et al, 2013), and HBV (Bergström and Forsman, 110 1973;Lindström, 1997). A comprehensive overview of existing GHMs is given in Bierkens (2015), Kauffeldt et al (2016), Pokhrel et al (2016), Wada et al (2017), and in the ISI-MIP project (Frieler et al, 2016) , the latter having been used for https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-214 Preprint. Discussion started: 14 August 2019 c Author(s) 2019.…”