Assessing the adequacy of current fisheries management under changing climate: a southern synopsis

Plagányi, Éva E.; Weeks, Scarla J.; Skewes, Tim; Gibbs, Mark T.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Norman-López, Ana; Blamey, Laura K.; Soares, Muri; Robinson, William M.

doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr049

Cited by 48 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Adaptive management approaches such as management strategy evaluation (MSE) (e.g. Smith et al 1999, Plagányi et al 2011 can be used to bring together ecological, economic and social values to adjust management appropriately towards pre-specified goals and in response to monitoring. Social-ecological governance systems typically cannot avoid abrupt shifts, and hence there is a need for robust governance systems with sufficient flexibility to buffer the worst impacts and conserve the social fabric of society (Duit & Galaz 2008).…”

Section: Summary Of Results and Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecosystem modelling provides clues to understanding ecological tipping points

Plagányi

Ellis²,

Blamey³

et al. 2014

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Ecological thresholds, associated with abrupt changes in the state and organisation of ecosystems, challenge both scientists and managers. Adaptive response to such changes, and planning for their occurrence, requires an understanding of the underlying drivers and system responses as well as appropriate monitoring. In addition to field studies, modelling can advance our ability to anticipate or deal with such major ecosystem shifts. Here, we used an existing multispecies model with smooth continuous functions that were modified to include thresholds representing 3 alternative scenarios of predator responses when prey numbers drop below a critical threshold: (I) no threshold-like response; (II) an abrupt decrease in breeding success by 90%, and (III) an abrupt halving of adult survival. Second, we analysed field observations from 3 independent marine case studies (abalone, starfish, penguins) for evidence of abrupt non-linear responses of predators to changes in abundance of principal prey. Third, we compared the model output with empirical results and tested (using both a statistical method and by fitting multispecies models) the 3 alternative response scenarios. With this approach, we found evidence for nonlinear changes in population parameters (such as survival rate) of predators as prey numbers declined below critical thresholds. As an example of the potential for this approach to inform management, we found that abundances of a range of marine predators become more variable as prey numbers decline, which may be a useful indicator that a system is approaching a tipping point.

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Section: Summary Of Results and Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecosystem modelling provides clues to understanding ecological tipping points

Plagányi

Ellis²,

Blamey³

et al. 2014

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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“…The ability of fisheries to adapt and remain viable and sustainable under climate change will depend on the nature of current and future management strategies, with adaptive management frameworks identified as the most likely to succeed (Plaganyi et al 2011a). In response to projected greater spatial and temporal variability in landings, fishers will have to become more mobile and responsive to fishing opportunities ).…”

Section: How Can Fisheries Adapt and What Opportunities Might Exist?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts and adaptation of commercial marine fisheries in Australia: a review of the science

Holbrook

Johnson

2014

Climatic Change

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Commercial marine fishing contributes significantly to the Australian economy, and has great importance for coastal communities. However, climate change presents significant challenges for Australia's fishing industries, now and into the future. With greater use of targeted information, the fishing industry will be better placed to minimise the negative impacts and take advantage of opportunities associated with the effects of climate change. The future of the fishing industry-specifically wild capture fisheries-will depend on its ability and capacity to apply appropriate adaptation strategies for its viability and sustainability in the long-term. Knowledge regarding expected long-term changes in species distributions, improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts and their influence on target species, and better understanding of species tolerances, can inform adaptation responses. This paper provides a review of recent advances in research addressing Australia's priorities in relation to commercial marine fisheries' responses to current and anticipated future climate change impacts, and considers barriers and adaptation options for fisheries management over the nearterm planning horizon of 5-7 years.

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“…Además, según Parry et al (2007), Schallenberg et al (2003), Plagányi et al (2011), OLDEPESCA (2010), Brenes (2010) y Samaniego (2009), el sector pesquero es afectado por variaciones en la temperatura superficial del mar. Además, Samaniego (2009) y Schatan et al (2010) señalan que los aumentos en la temperatura y las disminuciones o aumentos en la precipitación influyen negativamente en las playas, la salud de los ecosistemas coralinos y la actividad turística.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Actividades Socioeconómicas que emplean recursos naturales de la zona marítimo-terrestre y marina en Costa Rica y su relación con la variabilidad climática

Díaz

Moya

Alfaro

2017

PEDS

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La variabilidad climática podría tener efectos negativos sobre la productividad de las actividades que se desarrollan en las zonas costeras. Siendo Costa Rica un país en el que las actividades costeras relacionadas con recursos naturales tienen gran relevancia social y económica, en el presente artículo se realiza un análisis para verificar si estos efectos se presentan y brinda herramientas para la toma de decisiones en áreas costeras. Para lo anterior, se realiza una caracterización de la pesca y el sector turístico para el periodo 1990-2005. Se relaciona la cantidad de pesca tanto artesanal como industrial, la cantidad de turistas, hoteles y de habitaciones en zonas costeras con algunas variables climáticas con el fin de identificar las principales interacciones entre ellas. Las variables climáticas empleadas fueron: Temperatura Superficial del Mar (TSM) y Precipitación (P). Se emplearon coeficientes de correlación de Pearson entre las variables productivas y las climáticas. Al correlacionar las diferentes variables climáticas con la cantidad de pesca, se encontró que cuando el coeficiente fue estadísticamente significativo la variable climática en todos los casos tiene correlaciones negativas con las capturas; por ejemplo, cuando aumenta la TSM del Mar disminuye la cantidad de pesca. En el caso del turismo, los coeficientes no fueron estadísticamente significativos en las variables anuales pero sí en las trimestrales. La metodología aplicada en el presente artículo puede ser empleada para realizar inferencias sobre el comportamiento de las variables productivas para periodos específicos (trimestre por ejemplo) ante variaciones en climáticas y tomar medidas para mitigar el impacto.

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Assessing the adequacy of current fisheries management under changing climate: a southern synopsis

Cited by 48 publications

References 47 publications

Ecosystem modelling provides clues to understanding ecological tipping points

Ecosystem modelling provides clues to understanding ecological tipping points

Climate change impacts and adaptation of commercial marine fisheries in Australia: a review of the science

Actividades Socioeconómicas que emplean recursos naturales de la zona marítimo-terrestre y marina en Costa Rica y su relación con la variabilidad climática

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