Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

Jones, Julie Miller; Gille, Sarah T.; Goosse, Hugues; Abram, Nerilie J.; Canziani, Pablo O.; Charman, Dan J.; Clem, Kyle R.; Crosta, Xavier; Lavergne, Casimir de; Eisenman, Ian; England, Matthew H.; Fogt, Ryan L.; Frankcombe, Leela M.; Marshall, Gareth J.; Masson‐Delmotte, Valérie; Morrison, Adele K.; Orsi, Anaïs; Raphael, Marilyn; Renwick, James; Schneider, David P.; Simpkins, Graham; Steig, Eric J.; Stenni, Barbara; Swingedouw, Didier; Vance, Tessa R.

doi:10.1038/nclimate3103

Cited by 299 publications

(308 citation statements)

References 100 publications

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“…Consistent with this conclusion, it has been reported recently that natural variability in Antarctic temperature "overwhelms" any possible anthropogenic forcing of temperature for at least the past two centuries [79] (p. 917). In this case, and assuming that the ACO is the climatic precursor of the AAO, it may be concluded that the recent changes in the AAO toward the most positive phase seen in several centuries result not from increased atmospheric concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases [26,27], but rather from the natural increases in amplitude and frequency of the ACO as documented in the present study.…”

Section: Implications For Contemporary Global Warmingsupporting

confidence: 67%

The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation: A Natural Paleoclimate Cycle in the Southern Hemisphere That Influences Global Temperature

Davis

Taylor²,

Davis³

2018

Climate

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Abstract:We report a previously-unexplored natural temperature cycle recorded in ice cores from Antarctica-the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO)-that has oscillated for at least the last 226 millennia. Here we document the properties of the ACO and provide an initial assessment of its role in global climate. We analyzed open-source databases of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen as proxies for paleo-temperatures. We find that centennial-scale spectral peaks from temperature-proxy records at Vostok over the last 10,000 years occur at the same frequencies (±2.4%) in three other paleoclimate records from drill sites distributed widely across the East Antarctic Plateau (EAP), and >98% of individual ACOs evaluated at Vostok match 1:1 with homologous cycles at the other three EAP drill sites and conversely. Identified ACOs summate with millennial periodicity to form the Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIMs) known to precede Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) oscillations recorded in Greenland ice cores. Homologous ACOs recorded at the four EAP drill sites during the last glacial maximum appeared first at lower elevations nearest the ocean and centuries later on the high EAP, with latencies that exceed dating uncertainty >30-fold. ACO homologs at different drill sites became synchronous, however, during the warmer Holocene. Comparative spectral analysis suggests that the millennial-scale AIM cycle declined in period from 1500 to 800 years over the last 70 millennia. Similarly, over the last 226 millennia ACO repetition period (mean 352 years) declined by half while amplitude (mean 0.67 • C) approximately doubled. The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature increases; doubled in intensity over geologic time; is modulated by global temperature variations associated with planetary orbital cycles; and is the probable paleoclimate precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Properties of the ACO/AAO are capable of explaining the current global warming signal.

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Section: Implications For Contemporary Global Warmingsupporting

confidence: 67%

The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation: A Natural Paleoclimate Cycle in the Southern Hemisphere That Influences Global Temperature

Davis

Taylor²,

Davis³

2018

Climate

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“…For example, warming trends observed in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and West Antarctica (WA) in the past decades (Vaughan et al 2003;Bromwich et al 2012) have been associated with increase in mass loss Sutterley et al 2014). Present available observation dataset, however, is of insufficient length to address that these warming trends are anthropogenically forced, because natural interannual to multi-decadal variability may obscure these warming trends (Jones et al 2016). While no significant warming trends have been recorded in East Antarctica (EA) in recent decades (Altnau et al 2014), surface snowmelt is observed every summer over ice shelves, even in the East Antarctic coast (Toriensi et al 2003;Picard and Fily 2006;Trusel et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identification of Air Masses Responsible for Warm Events on the East Antarctic Coast

Kurita

Hirasawa

Koga

et al. 2016

SOLA

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Warm events, periods when rising surface air temperatures can trigger surface melt, have been recorded during the austral summer at Syowa station on the East Antarctic coast. This study identifies air masses responsible for summer warm events at Syowa. Air masses arriving at Syowa are classified into marine and glacial sources based on their isotopic characteristics. Warm events are not associated with moist marine air intrusion, but with the downward flow of dry glacial air along the west side slope of the mountains in Enderby Land (EL). We use simulations from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) to explore the atmospheric process responsible for the warmest event at Syowa. The model output illustrates several foehn-associated features such as low-level blocking, precipitation on the mountain's windward side, and mountain wave activity, with warm air ascending on the upstream slope and descending to Syowa. The foehn warming is caused by an easterly cross-mountain flow associated with a low-pressure system to the north of the EL coast. Future changes in synoptic cyclonic activity off the EL coast may have a significant impact on the frequency and intensity of foehn events at Syowa and the associated coastal warm events.(Citation: Kurita, N., N. Hirasawa, S. Koga, J. Matsushita, H. C. Steen-Larsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, and Y. Fujiyoshi, 2016: Identification of air mass responsible for warm events on the East

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“…5c and d, the sea ice extent index (SIE J ) for the Ross-Amundsen Sea, developed by Jones et al (2016), is correlated with ERAi SAT and precipitation data. The analysis also identifies the co-variance of sea ice extent (SIE) and SAT, with increasing (decreasing) sea ice coinciding with cooler (warmer) SAT.…”

Section: Regional Snow Accumulation Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…-The Ross-Amundsen Sea SIE J developed by Jones et al (2016) was accessed via http://www.nature.com/ articles/nclimate3103#supplementary-information.…”

Section: Data Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ross Sea Dipole – temperature, snow accumulation and sea ice variability in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica, over the past 2700 years

et al. 2018

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Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

Cited by 299 publications

References 100 publications

The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation: A Natural Paleoclimate Cycle in the Southern Hemisphere That Influences Global Temperature

The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation: A Natural Paleoclimate Cycle in the Southern Hemisphere That Influences Global Temperature

Identification of Air Masses Responsible for Warm Events on the East Antarctic Coast

The Ross Sea Dipole – temperature, snow accumulation and sea ice variability in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica, over the past 2700 years

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