Assessing Lake Response to Extreme Climate Change Using the Coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 Model: Case Study of Lake Zazari in Greece

In times of population growth, climate change, and increasing water scarcity around the world, it is important to take an objective look at water, a fundamental resource for life. Hydrodynamic modeling makes possible the research of different aspects of the water cycle and the evaluation of different hydrological and hydrogeological forecasting scenarios in the short and medium terms. The present research offers a more detailed scope at the hydrodynamic processes and their space-time distributions on a UE pilot in the Júcar River Basin, providing a calibrated and validated hydrodynamic model of 121 km river reach for 45 years period (1974–2019) on a daily scale. The obtained information is about discharge and water depths along the Júcar River reach within the hydrogeological boundaries of the Mancha Oriental Aquifer (MOA). The river–aquifer interactions have been represented as dynamic boundary conditions expressed as a difference between observed discharges measured in 3 gauging stations. The obtained calibration error performance evaluations of observed and simulated values cover two periods, according to observed data availability from gauging station 08036 with resulting R2 for both discharges and water depths over 0.96. The model validation results were obtained for a different gauge 08132 and the determination coefficients R2 also perform very well with value of 0.90. The model developed might be useful for decision making in water resources management and can be used to generate simulated time series of water depths, levels, discharges, and velocities in reaches where gauging measurements are not available with a desired space-time resolution (from meter/second to kilometer/month). Estimation of critical discharge value (1.973 m3s−1) for system equilibrium, based on the balance between losing and gaining sub-reaches of the river, is also made with a statistical significance at 95% for hydrologic years 2007–2010, period influenced by restrictions in groundwater withdrawals. The results of the present research are important for the proper and objective management of the scarce water resources on a watershed scale in Júcar River Basin, a complex case study representing semiarid climate, growing anthropogenic pressures, and complex river–aquifer interactions. The used approach of dynamic representation of the river–aquifer interactions as distributed source boundary condition in the one-dimensional hydrodynamic model might be applied in another study case on similar scale.

Section: Discussion (Implications For the Water Resources Management)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing 1D Hydrodynamic Modeling of Júcar River Behavior in Mancha Oriental Aquifer Domain (SE Spain)

Dountcheva

Sanz

Penchev

et al. 2023

“…A key requirement for modelling N and P inputs to receiving waters by input pathways is, therefore, the simulation of runoff components and nutrient displacement at high spatial resolution. Physically based hydrological models for this purpose, such as WaSIM-ETH [34] and MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 [35], are based on the physics of hydrological processes and are suitable for simulations at a regional scale, e.g., for individual mesoscale catchments [36][37][38]. Physically based reactive N and P transport models [39][40][41] belong to the same model type.…”

Section: Introduction and Objectivementioning

confidence: 99%

Germany-Wide High-Resolution Water Balance Modelling to Characterise Runoff Components as Input Pathways for the Analysis of Nutrient Fluxes

Wolters,

McNamara,

Tetzlaff

et al. 2023

The input of nutrients into surface waters and groundwater is directly linked to runoff components. Due to the different physicochemical behaviour of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, the individual runoff components have different significance as input pathways. Within the scope of the Germany-wide project AGRUM-DE, spatially differentiated runoff components were modelled with the water balance model mGROWA at a resolution of 100 m. The modelled distributed runoff components include total runoff, surface runoff, drainage runoff, natural interflow, direct runoff from urban areas, and groundwater recharge. Although the mGROWA model operates in daily time steps, modelled runoff components can be aggregated to mean long-term hydrologic reference periods—for this study, 1981–2010. We obtained good model agreement through the comparison of measured discharge from 298 river gauges against the spatial means of the modelled runoff components over their corresponding catchment areas. Therefore, the model results provide reliable input for input pathway-specific modelling of actual nutrient inputs as well as scenario analyses expected from the application of nutrient reduction initiatives. This ensures that any differences in the model results stem exclusively from differences in nutrient supply (fertilisation of the soils) and not from climatic effects, such as the influence of wet or dry years.

“…VIC [11] is a large-scale, semi-distributed hydrological model, which can be used for drought assessments; however, it focuses on vertical simulation and lacks horizontal simulation. MIKE [12] produces a better simulation of river flow processes and can be used to assess the inundation effects of floods on river channels; however, its simulations of slope hydrological processes are insufficient. WEP [13] is used for watershed hydrological simulations and can be used to study the impact of land-use changes on the water cycle process; however, its simulation of soil water and groundwater processes need to be improved.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recognition of the Interaction Mechanisms between Water and Land Resources Based on an Improved Distributed Hydrological Model

Wang

Qin

et al. 2023

Conflicts between humans and land use in the process of using water and conflicts between humans and water resources in the process of using land have led to an imbalance between natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems. It is difficult to understand the impact of the processes of water production and consumption on land patches and their ecological effects. A grid-type, basin-distributed hydrological model was established in this study, which was based on land-use units and coupled with groundwater modules to simulate the water production and consumption processes in different units. By combining land use and net primary productivity, the runoff coefficient and the water use efficiency (NPP/ET) of different land units were used as indicators to characterize the interaction between water and land resources. The results showed that the average runoff coefficients of cultivated land, forest land and grassland were 0.7, 0.5 and 0.9, respectively. Moreover, the average runoff coefficients of hills, plains and basins were 0.7, 0.7 and 0.8, respectively. The NPP produced by the average unit, evapotranspiration, in cultivated land, forest land and grassland was 7 (gC/(m2•a))/mm, 0.7 (gC/(m2•a))/mm and 0.2 (gC/(m2•a))/mm, respectively. These results provide quantitative scientific and technological support in favor of the comprehensive ecological management of river basins.