Application of multivariate logistic regression model to assess factors of importance influencing prevalence of abortion and stillbirth in Nigerian goat breeds

Abstract

The aim of the study was to investigate the application of binary logistic regression to assess the potential factors associated with the prevalence of abortion and stillbirth in indigenous goat breeds in Nasarawa State, north central Nigeria. 5,268 kidding records of does from a total of 105 traditional goat herders from the year 2010-2011 were utilized in the study. The goats which were of West African Dwarf (WAD), Red Sokoto (RS), Sahel (SH) and WAD x RS crossbred (WR) genetic groups originated from different flocks and were reared under the traditional extensive system. The risk factors investigated were dam breed group, season, parity and number of foetuses. Of the 5,268 kidding records, 570 (10.8%) and 520 (9.87%) were cases of abortion and stillbirth, respectively. The logistic regression analysis revealed that season, parity and number of foetuses were the parameters of utmost importance (P<0.05) influencing the prevalence of abortion and stillbirth in the four genetic groups investigated. The logistic regression models were able to predict correctly 89.2 and 90.1% cases of abortion and stillbirth, respectively. The present information may be exploited in management practices to attenuate the incidence of abortion and stillbirth parturition, thereby increasing the productivity of the animals.

Causes and Flock Level Risk Factors of Sheep and Goat Abortion in Three Agroecology Zones in Ethiopia

“…Compared to the international figures, a higher abortion percentage of 43.7% for does and 35.6% for ewes was reported from Egypt (32). In contrary, a lower abortion rate has been reported from Jordan, 10.6% in does and 2.0% in ewes (33); from Nigerian, 10.8% in does (34) and from Mexico, 3.5% in does (35). Similarly, the higher abortion percentage in lowland flocks than in highland flocks is in agreement with the report of Gebremedhin et al (22) and Fentie (31) in Ethiopia.…”

<p>Epidemiological Investigation of Cattle Abortion and Its Association with Brucellosis in Jimma Zone, Ethiopia</p>

“…50 This finding is in line with previous studies 20,22 in which the reported breed significantly affected the occurrence of abortion in cattle. Similar to this result, others 51,52 also detected the significant effect of breed on the incidence of abortion in cattle in Nigeria and India, respectively. However, different from this result, some studies 40,42,53 reported that a breed of cattle was not significantly associated with the occurrence of abortion.…”

“…58,59 This result is in agreement with several reports from other countries. 17,48,51,55 However, reports in Korea, Iran, and Chile differ from this finding, 52,56,60,61 reporting the season of calving did not affect the incidence of abortion. This difference may be due to the variation in environmental conditions, breed of cattle, and management system.…”

Review of common causes of abortion in dairy cattle in Ethiopia

“…However, other investigations have reported that milk production and cow parity were not associated with abortion (Moore et al, 2005). Parity status and breed were significant factors affecting the incidence of abortion (Yakubu et al, 2015). However, Haileselassie et al (2011) reported that parity status had no significant effect on the incidence of abortion.…”