Application of General Circulation Models to Assess the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution and Relative Abundance of<i>Melanoplus sanguinipes</i>(Fabricius) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in North America

Olfert, O.; Weiss, R.M.; Kriticos, Darren J.

doi:10.1155/2011/980372

Cited by 27 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Using a CLIMEX‐developed BEM for the grasshopper Melanoplus sanguinipes (Fabricius) (Orthoptera: Acrididae), northward expansion seemed to be a robust prediction found across three GCMs; however Olfert et al . () nonetheless found variability in the amount of suitable and favourable areas for this pest. In a more extreme example, Mika et al .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

Berzitis

Minigan

Hallett

et al. 2014

Global Change Biology

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The bean leaf beetle, Cerotoma trifurcata, has become a major pest of soybean throughout its North American range. With a changing climate, there is the potential for this pest to further expand its distribution and become an increasingly severe pest in certain regions. To examine this possibility, we developed bioclimatic envelope models for both the bean leaf beetle, and its most important agronomic host plant, soybean (Glycine max). These two models were combined to examine the potential future pest status of the beetle using climate change projections from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and climate change scenarios. Despite the broad tolerances of soybean, incorporation of host plant availability substantially decreased the suitable and favourable areas for the bean leaf beetle as compared to an evaluation based solely on the climate envelope of the beetle, demonstrating the importance of incorporating biotic interactions in these predictions. The use of multiple GCM-scenario combinations also revealed differences in predictions depending on the choice of GCM, with scenario choice having less of an impact. While the Norwegian model predicted little northward expansion of the beetle from its current northern range limit of southern Ontario and overall decreases in suitable and favourable areas over time, the Canadian and Russian models predict that much of Ontario and Quebec will become suitable for the beetle in the future, as well as Manitoba under the Russian model. The Russian model also predicts expansion of the suitable and favourable areas for the beetle over time. Two predictions that do not depend on our choice of GCM include a decrease in suitability of the Mississippi Delta region and continued favourability of the southeastern United States.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

Berzitis

Minigan

Hallett

et al. 2014

Global Change Biology

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“…For example, Olfert et al . () noted varying responses to model inputs for the three GCMs used in their study of the crop pest Melanoplus sanguinipes , and in a study by Kriticos et al . (), the variability in results caused by different GCMs was as great as the variability caused by different scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…How climatic change will affect agricultural systems is clearly a question of concern (Olfert et al ., ), directly applicable to important global issues such as food security (Gregory et al ., ). An understanding of the potential impacts of climatic change on agricultural pests is necessary if we want to be able to predict the response of agricultural systems to that change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and voltinism in Californian insect pest species: sensitivity to location, scenario and climate model choice

Ziter

Robinson

Newman

2012

Global Change Biology

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Experimental studies of the impact of climatic change are hampered by their inability to consider multiple climate change scenarios and indeed often consider no more than simple climate sensitivity such as a uniform increase in temperature. Modelling efforts offer the ability to consider a much wider range of realistic climate projections and are therefore useful, in particular, for estimating the sensitivity of impact predictions to differences in geographical location, and choice of climate change scenario and climate model projections. In this study, we used well-established degree-day models to predict the voltinism of 13 agronomically important pests in California, USA. We ran these models using the projections from three Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Global Circulation Models (AOCGCMs or GCMs), in conjunction with the SRES scenarios. We ran these for two locations representing northern and southern California. We did this for both the 2050s and 2090s. We used anova to partition the variation in the resulting voltinism among time period, climate change scenario, GCM and geographical location. For these 13 pest species, the choice of climate model explained an average of 42% of the total variation in voltinism, far more than did geographical location (33%), time period (17%) or scenario (1%). The remaining 7% of the variation was explained by various interactions, of which the location by GCM interaction was the strongest (5%). Regardless of these sources of uncertainty, a robust conclusion from our work is that all 13 pest species are likely to experience increases in the number of generations that they complete each year. Such increased voltinism is likely to have significant consequences for crop protection and production.

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“…In combination with killing frosts occurring later in the fall, this has resulted in a general trend towards a longer growing season (Qian et al 2010) with endemic species experiencing milder winters. Climate change directly and indirectly affects arthropod populations, but studies of direct effects in the Canadian Prairies Ecozone have been largely limited to exotic species that are pests of crops (Olfert and Weiss 2006;Olfert et al 2011Olfert et al , 2016. One probable impact is changes in the ranges of grassland species (Scudder 2010a), though these changes are not straightforward, since species of arthropod in Canadian grasslands are adapted to cold and dry winters, and are not just extensions of the fauna from grasslands further south (Scudder 2014b).…”

Section: The Prairies Ecozone and Its Constituent Ecoregionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arthropods of Canadian grasslands: a retrospective of a 40-year project of the Biological Survey of Canada

et al. 2017

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Application of General Circulation Models to Assess the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution and Relative Abundance ofMelanoplus sanguinipes(Fabricius) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in North America

Cited by 27 publications

References 20 publications

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

Climate change and voltinism in Californian insect pest species: sensitivity to location, scenario and climate model choice

Arthropods of Canadian grasslands: a retrospective of a 40-year project of the Biological Survey of Canada

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