Anthropocene refugia: integrating history and predictive modelling to assess the space available for biodiversity in a human-dominated world

Abstract

13During periods of strong environmental change, some areas may serve as refugia, where components of 14 biodiversity can find protection, persist and potentially expand from should conditions again become 15 favourable. The refugia concept has previously been used in the context of climatic change, to describe 16 climatically stable areas in which taxa survived past Quaternary glacial-interglacial oscillations, or where they 17 might persist in the future under anthropogenic climate change. However, with the recognition that Earth 18 has entered the Anthropocene, an era in which human activities are the dominant driving force on 19 ecosystems, it is critical to also consider human pressures on the environment as factors limiting species 20 distributions. Here, we present a novel concept, Anthropocene refugia, to refer to areas that provide spatial 21 and temporal protection from human activities and that will remain suitable for a given taxonomic unit in 22 the long-term. It integrates a deep-time perspective on species biogeography that provides information on 23 the natural rather than current-day relictual distribution of species, with spatial information on modern and 24 future anthropogenic threats. We define the concept and propose a methodology to effectively identify and 25 map realised and potential current and future refugia, using examples for two megafauna species as a proof 26 of concept. We argue that identifying Anthropocene refugia will improve biodiversity conservation and 27 restoration by allowing better prediction of key areas for conservation and potential for re-expansions today 28 and in the future. More generally, it forms a new conceptual framework to assess and manage the impact of 29 anthropogenic activities on past, current and future patterns of species distributions. 30 31

Towards Conservation of the Remarkably High Number of Daisy Trees (Asteraceae) in Mexico

“…Anthropocene refugia correspond to territories that meet the following qualities: being ecologically suitable areas to house the diversity units analyzed and having relatively low levels of observed and predicted anthropogenic pressure to allow their long-term persistence in this area, i.e., through several generations [ 77 ]. The main difference between Pleistocene and Anthropocene refugia is that the former are sites where organisms resisted and responded to glacial and interglacial oscillations of the late Quaternary, having the possibility of expanding their distribution once environmental stress conditions decreased [ 78 ].…”

“…The main difference between Pleistocene and Anthropocene refugia is that the former are sites where organisms resisted and responded to glacial and interglacial oscillations of the late Quaternary, having the possibility of expanding their distribution once environmental stress conditions decreased [ 78 ]. In contrast, in order to characterize probable refugia from the Anthropocene, climate change derived from anthropogenic pressures is taken into account [ 77 ]. Therefore, the identification of Anthropocene refugia is useful to categorize, plan, and decide where to establish conservation areas for the group of interest [ 77 ].…”

“…In contrast, in order to characterize probable refugia from the Anthropocene, climate change derived from anthropogenic pressures is taken into account [ 77 ]. Therefore, the identification of Anthropocene refugia is useful to categorize, plan, and decide where to establish conservation areas for the group of interest [ 77 ].…”

Low Densities of the Ghost Crab Ocypode quadrata Related to Large Scale Human Modification of Sandy Shores

“…Although some biases of quantification have been raised (Pombo and Turra, 2013), the indirect estimates of ghost-crab population sizes are a non-destructive, friendly, and low cost sampling and, has been used as a valuable and efficient strategy tool by researchers for impact assessments on sandy beaches and today these data represent an important historical of records. At the same time the increasing possibilities to apply remotesensing technologies enable the application of spatially explicit information on conservation and management effort (Monsarrat et al, 2019;El Mahrad et al, 2020). A big effort is being dedicated to make friendly available global scale data set of environmental variables (Fick and Hijmans, 2017;Assis et al, 2018) and intensity of human modification of natural systems, for example the Global Human Footprint (Venter et al, 2016) or the cumulative Human Modification (HMc) (Kennedy et al, 2019(Kennedy et al, , 2020.…”

Linking Taxonomic, Phylogenetic and Functional Plant Diversity with Ecosystem Services of Cliffs and Screes in Greece

“…Spatially explicit (i.e., georeferenced) biodiversity information has been obtained and contributed to the development of biodiversity-related indicators for the MAES implementation in Greece [ 3 ]. The identified biodiversity hotspots and endemism centers are mainly located on mountainous areas; however, conservation efforts should target areas with overlaps among protected areas and climatic refugia, characterized by high diversity [ 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 ]. Thus, the preservation of evolutionary heritage, trait diversity, and future ecosystem services for human well-being [ 17 , 18 , 19 ] could be ensured.…”