Analysis of the Melanoma Epidemic, Both Apparent and Real

Kinetic model of progression of cutaneous melanoma population

“…Others argued that the increasing incidence of invasive melanomas suggests that the observed increase in melanoma incidence is real and not limited to indolent melanomas [24,25]. The kinetic model developed here supports the latter point of view, beacuse for a fixed incidence rate of progressing melanomas, if the rate coefficients for excision of melanomas increase (for example, owing to improved surveillance) then the melanoma mortality should decrease, even though some of the excised melanomas may be indolent.…”

Primary Cutaneous Melanoma: An 18-Year Study

“…These Brazilian data are not different from the results of epidemiologic studies conducted in other countries, like Scotland (a rise of 303% for men and 187% for women over eleven years),13 the United States (increasing incidence of cutaneous melanoma),26,27 Queensland, Australia (increasing by more than 50% in women and more than doubling in men), 28 Sweden (5% annual increase),29 New South Wales, Australia (incidence rates are much higher than a few decades before),30 Japan (annual increase ratio for deaths of 6.3%)31 and British Columbia, Canada (3–7% a year frequency increase for new cases, even doubling at each 10–15 year period, depending on the population studied)32.…”

Thick melanoma: the challenge persists

“…It would appear, however, that there is more evidence to suggest a length‐time bias than a lead‐time bias 15 in melanoma's natural history, including this study's results and the SMG mortality results 4 . The suggestion is that increased surveillance is detecting melanomas that would never have progressed, i.e.…”