Analysis of rainfall and drought in Rajasthan state, India

Mundetia, N.; Sharma, Devesh

doi:10.30955/gnj.001379

Cited by 13 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Interestingly, it is noteworthy here that the western region in the Marusthali desert area of the state, exhibits a concurrent rise in the annual average precipitation, which is also mentioned in study ofKumar et al (2010). Interestingly few stations of the eastern part of the state are showing the decreasing trend of the mean annual rainfall which is indistinguishable with the study ofMundetia and Sharma (2015);Mondal et al (2015);Kumar et al (2010). The study ofLal et al (2001) has also mentioned that the arid western part of the state soon coming could receive higher rainfall because of the warming climate.…”

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confidence: 66%

Understanding and assessing the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in the state of Rajasthan

Choudhary,

Punia,

Bhattacharyya

2023

Preprint

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Climate change has exposed the world to more frequent and prolonged occurrences of extreme and diverse events. The frequency of extreme dry events, such as drought, is on the rise, significantly impacting various socioeconomic sectors, especially in arid regions like the Indian state of Rajasthan. These changes in drought occurrence have far-reaching consequences on the socioeconomic landscape. In this study, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) we examined meteorological drought characteristics in the state of Rajasthan to identify three categories of drought events (mild, moderate, and severe) at multi-temporal scales (i.e., 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month). For this monthly rainfall data for a period of 34 years (1988-2021) are used from 165 well-spread meteorological stations across the state. The results of the study reveal that the state of Rajasthan experienced frequent milder drought events, followed by moderate and extreme drought events during the study period. Our findings indicate that severe drought events predominantly occur during the months of July- September whereas moderate and mild droughts are more commonly observed during April – June. After analyzing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events, we created drought hazard maps at different temporal scales. The results obtained from the SPI12 hazard mapping indicate that the northern and northwestern regions, covering the districts of Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, Jaipur, Sikar, western Bikaner, Hanumangarh, and Ganganagar are the most drought-prone areas within the state. To analyze the trends in rainfall and drought events across different time scales, we conducted the nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The results of the MK test indicated that out of the 165 stations examined, 130 stations (26 significant, p < 0.001) exhibit an increasing trend in mean annual rainfall. Conversely, 34 stations (2 significant, p < 0.001) demonstrated a decreasing trend in rainfall. In response to the increasing rainfall, drought events are found to decrease over the study period even at a shorter temporal scale (i.e., 3month-SPI) at most of the stations. Policymakers and stakeholders could benefit from the long-term drought hazard map in identifying drought-prone regions and formulating policies and programs to promote water conservation and enhance drought preparedness in the state.

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supporting

confidence: 66%

Understanding and assessing the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in the state of Rajasthan

Choudhary,

Punia,

Bhattacharyya

2023

Preprint

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“…Increasing trends in precipitation during autumn and winter, whereas decreasing trends during monsoon and spring were reported by Pal and Al-Tabbaa (2011) based on the analysis for the period of 1954-2003. Many other studies were done by the authors in which rainfall pattern, distribution, frequency, etc. of different North Indian states were studied, that is, Haryana (Chauhan et al, 2022;Nain & Hooda, 2019), Himachal Pradesh (Jaswal et al, 2015), Punjab (Kaur et al, 2021), Rajasthan (Mundetia & Sharma, 2014;Pingale et al, 2013), Uttarakhand (Malik & Kumar, 2020) and Uttar Pradesh (Guhathakurta et al, 2020). Mondal et al (2022) showed that the extreme precipitation events across South Asia may increase up to 3.5%-6.6% due to increase in warming from 1.5 to 2.0°C.…”

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Fate of Rainfall Over the North Indian States in the 1.5 and 2°C Warming Scenarios

Pattnayak

Awasthi

Sharma

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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Rise in mean temperature put a great deal of uncertainty about how weather and climate extremes may play out, particularly in India's varied climatic zones. Consequently, it is important to understand the possible changes in both magnitude and direction of weather and climate extremes like rainfall for different warming levels of 1.5 and 2°C scenarios concerning preindustrial and present levels. Hence in the present study, the precipitation behavior of seven North Indian states that is, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand carefully studied using CMIP5 models. Future projections of precipitation has been done for the Paris Agreement global warming level of 1.5 and 2°C scenarios. Along with model validation and future projections of precipitation, the return period of extreme rainfall is also discussed to understand the behavior of the occurrence of extreme precipitation. Statistical analysis shows that the ensemble means have the least error as compared to the other six CMIP5 models. Therefore, future analysis has been done with the ensemble mean. Our findings show that the precipitation is likely to decrease in the 1.5°C scenarios, while it is likely to increase in the 2°C scenarios. The occurrence and intensity of extreme rainfall events are likely to be more frequent in all the models. The return period of the extreme rainfall events is likely to increase in all the states in both the warming scenarios. A three‐fold rise is likely to increase extreme rainfall events in the 2°C scenario.

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Copula based analysis of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought characteristics across Indian river basins

Poonia

Jha

Goyal

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Duration and severity are the two most important parameters used for drought characterization. In this study, we used a bivariate copula‐based approach to understand the joint dependence of drought duration and severity of three different drought types. Three types of bivariate copulas (Gumbel, Frank and Plackett) are estimated for modelling and the best fit copula is selected over 1,162 grid points (at a resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°) of India. Further, the joint dependence of drought duration and severity are analysed to infer important properties in terms of exceedance probability and return periods. Finally, conditional probability and conditional return periods of drought characteristics are also derived, which could be useful for proper planning and management of the water resource system. From the investigation, it is observed that drought events in the Western and Central India are longer and more severe whereas the ones in the south Indian river basins are more frequent but less severe. Moreover, similar results were also obtained for the conditional probability and conditional return periods. This study provides information regarding the severe and longer drought event hotspots all over the study area and thus helpful for the policymakers in developing effective drought prevention and mitigation strategies comprehensively at a national scale.

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Analysis of rainfall and drought in Rajasthan state, India

Cited by 13 publications

References 14 publications

Understanding and assessing the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in the state of Rajasthan

Understanding and assessing the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in the state of Rajasthan

Fate of Rainfall Over the North Indian States in the 1.5 and 2°C Warming Scenarios

Copula based analysis of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought characteristics across Indian river basins

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