Analysis of Natural Streamflow Variation and Its Influential Factors on the Yellow River from 1957 to 2010

Abstract

In this study, variation characteristics of hydrometeorological factors were explored based on observed time-series data between 1957 and 2010 in four subregions of the Yellow River Basin. For each region, precipitation-streamflow models at annual and flood-season scales were developed to quantify the impact of annual precipitation, temperature, percentage of flood-season precipitation, and anthropogenic interference. The sensitivities of annual streamflow to these three climatic factors were then calculated using a modified elasticity coefficient model. The results presented the following:(1) Annual streamflow exhibited a negative trend in all regions; (2) The reduction of annual streamflow was mainly caused by a precipitation decrease and temperature increase for all regions before 2000, whereas the contribution of anthropogenic interference increased significantly-more than 45%, except for Tang-Tou region after 2000. The percentage of flood-season precipitation variation can also be responsible for annual streamflow reduction with a range of 7.36% (Tang-Tou) to 21.88% (Source); (3) Annual streamflow was more sensitive to annual precipitation than temperature in the humid region, and the opposite situation was observed in the arid region. The sensitivities to intra-annual climate variation increased after 2000 for all regions, and the increase was more significant in Tou-Long and Long-Hua regions.importance for a better understanding of the hydrologic mechanisms, which is beneficial for planning suitable adaptation strategies and water management.There are various methods to separate the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic interference on streamflow, mainly including catchment experiments, hydrological models, and statistical methods [9]. Catchment experiments are the most rigorous empirical research design for estimating the effects of land use on aquatic systems [10], but they can be influenced by the variation in experimental conditions and the presentation of results [11]. Most relevant studies indicate that catchment streamflow decreased significantly after afforestation and increased after deforestation [10,12,13]. Hydrological models, both distributed and lumped, have been widely used [7,[14][15][16]. Hu et al. applied the water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM) to diagnose and quantify climate and human impacts on streamflow change [17]. Hundecha et al. applied a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to 95 catchments in the Rhine basin to model the effect of land use change on runoff [18]. Statistical methods such as streamflow elasticity have also been used in regions specifically with available long-term climate and hydrologic data [9,19,20]. Tian et al. used regression analysis to illustrate runoff decline via comparison of precipitation-runoff correlation for the period prior to and after sharp runoff decline [21].The semiarid and arid Yellow River Basin (YRB) is the main source of surface water in the northwest and northern part of China. The annual streamflow is a...

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