Analysis of Incorporating Outsourced Transport Activity by the Forestry Company: An Economic Feasibility and Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

The analysis of economic feasibility in the forest transport segment is essential for companies to support decision-making. The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic return and to simulate a sensitivity scenario using the Monte Carlo technique when incorporating outsourced wood transport activity by the forestry company. The study was carried out in a company in the forestry segment located on the north coast of Bahia, Brazil, which uses a Biminhão (semi-truck with a flatbed trailer) as its base for transport. The costs, revenues and uncertainties involved in the activity were analyzed. The following viability criteria were used: NPV, EAV, IRR, APC, BCR and PayBack period. A sensitivity analysis was performed as a way to support the safety of the evaluated project. The economic evaluation was positive in all analyzed criteria (NPV US$ 129,231.54); VAE (US$18,827.22); (CMP US$ 2.62/m³); B/C (1.08), IRR (75%) and PayBack period (3.55 years). The probability of generating negative NPV results in the conducted simulation was 20.4%, with the main influencing variables being the freight value and the interest rate. Considering the data under study, incorporating wood transport activity with the use of a semi-truck with a flatbed trailer by the forestry company proved to be attractive and did not present a significant economic risk.