Analysis of COVID-19 epidemic traced data and stochastic discrete transmission dynamic model

Abstract

The epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia has spread throughout the country. The early epidemic cases in many provinces, including Shaanxi, are mainly imported cases. The latest epidemic situation has been decreasing under restrict prevention and control strategies. Accessing the efficacy of control measures, analyzing the impact of population flow on the epidemic situation are of great significance for the study of the epidemic situation in Shaanxi (or other areas with imported cases as the main cases) and the future response to emergent infectious diseases. According to the detailed data published by Shaanxi, we can obtain the transmission chains (infection tree), and the median durations from the illness onset to the first medical visit, to the admission, and then to the final confirmation. We can obtain the daily number of latent, infectious and hospitalized individuals and the spatial distribution of their state evolution. The control reproduction number of COVID-19 epidemic was determined (1.48-1.69). We develop the statistical inference method to calculate the effective regeneration number under the strict control measures in Shaanxi province. Furthermore, a novel stochastic discrete transmission model for COVID-19 was proposed, which integrates possible interventions and import cases. The parameterization of the formulated model was realized through multiple source data. Our main conclusion shows that intermittent population flow, close attention and effective isolation of the floating population can effectively reduce the risk of secondary outbreak, which consequently provides decision support for the orderly organization of returning to work/school.

Effects of medical resource capacities and intensities of public mitigation measures on outcomes of COVID-19 outbreaks

“…In the absence of effective treatments for, or vaccines against, COVID-19, the early adoption of strict prevention and control measures will undoubtedly play a very important role in limiting the spread of the virus and the growth of the epidemic (1-8) . This has been shown by the successes of China, South Korea and other countries in curbing the spread of the virus and achieving important prevention and control results (7, 8) . For example, unprecedented restrictive measures, including travel restrictions, contact tracing, quarantine and lock-down of entire towns/cities adopted by the Chinese authorities has resulted in a significant reduction in the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China (7, 8) .…”

“…This has been shown by the successes of China, South Korea and other countries in curbing the spread of the virus and achieving important prevention and control results (7, 8) . For example, unprecedented restrictive measures, including travel restrictions, contact tracing, quarantine and lock-down of entire towns/cities adopted by the Chinese authorities has resulted in a significant reduction in the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China (7, 8) . However, with the increase of COVID-19 cases in the world, especially the sharp increase in the cumulative number of reported deaths, the shortage of medical resources has become the most serious threat facing countries experiencing serious epidemics.…”

“…How to quantify the levels of improvements in prevention and control measures and of medical resources in order to reveal differences in the epidemic’s progression in different countries remain unclear, but are addressed in this study. In order to investigate this issue, we propose a general COVID-19 epidemic transmission dynamics model that includes limitations of medical resources and enhancing prevention and control strategies in six selected countries (China, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain and Iran) (7, 8) . The formulated transmission model is parameterized by multi-source data such as the numbers of newly reported cases and the cumulative numbers of deaths for each country.…”

Modelling COVID-19 incidence in the African sub-region using smooth transition autoregressive model

“…The aftermath of increasing number of confirmed cases and associated deaths across the globe, both mathematical and statistical models have been used to describe the transmission dynamics and also forecast the incidence (Maleki et al 2020;Sanyi et al 2020;Zhang et al 2020). The prediction of COVID-19 incidence is of great importance to public health workers and policy-makers to support decision-making regarding distribution of limited resources in areas with high infection rate (Roy et al 2020a).…”

The Impact of Population Migration on the Spread of COVID-19: A Case Study of Guangdong Province and Hunan Province in China

“…Typically, Li et al analyzed the impact of different lockdown time in Wuhan on the transmission of COVID-19 in Shanxi Province [12]. Tang et al focused on the time to resume work and assessed the risk of the epidemic [13][14][15]. Furthermore, Huang et al predicted the trend of COVID-19 and calculated the parameters of this epidemic [16].…”