Analysis and Forecast of Grain Supply and Demand in China’s thirteen-five Period

Abstract

Abstract. In recent years, the demand and supply of grain has dramatically changed. The paper uses the intelligent information processing method to analyse grain supply and demand of China. The gray model and Back Propagation neural network are used to forecast the trend of grain supply and demand in the thirteen-five period. The result shows that both grain supply and demand will increase in long trend, but grain demand has more than grain supply. The forecasting grain supply growth ratio will be separately 0.88% and 0.79%, the grain demand will be increased 32.2% and 19.5% in 2020 using the grey model and BP, compared with the supply and demand in 2014. At last, the suggestions are given. In order to guarantee the grain safety, scientific method should be used to monitor and analysis the grain market.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Food Production–Demand Mismatch in China and Implications for Agricultural Structural Adjustment

“…The balance of food supply and demand is one of the essential symbols of national food security, and it is also a hot issue. The research perspectives of grain supply and demand in China mainly focus on production [11][12][13], consumption [11], supply and demand patterns [14][15][16], influencing factors [12,14,16], and supply and demand trend prediction [11,17]. The research methods include spatial autocorrelation analysis [15], GIS [13], the barycentric analysis model [12,16], the grain supply and demand model [13], the spatial mismatch index [14], the evaluation indicator system for food security [18], and the construction of coupling coordination degree models.…”